Buying a Flat in Belgrade: Yes, No, Advice?

/ 10.02.2008. u 17:48

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Just got back from Nepal, where I got many emails from Belgrade friends saying if we are going to buy in Belgrade, now is the time before prices go insane. Belgrade is cheaper now than Zagreb and Zadar where my husband's parents still live. And what with favorable politics, rich Russians and Kosovo-ites and perhaps loads of East-West spies and diplomats all descending on Belgrade - plus the looming someday maybe of EU membership - I guess we'd be crazy not to buy.

But then I wonder if it's a good investment after all. Prices seem very high in relation to typical salaries. Any flat under 50 square meters is wildly overpriced because it's so small it's "affordable" and any larger flat can't be resold in future because no one can afford a mortgage of more than 100,000 Euros... and there's all that new construction going on - thousands of new flats which make older ones, well less exciting for resale too.

Ok if you were me and you had the chance to buy now as an investment in Belgrade, what would you buy? Thanks in advance for your advice.

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nsarski 18:10 10.02.2008

In Belgrade,

as everywhere else, there are three most important things to consider when buying an apartment: Location, location, location. What with Belgrade traffic, this is even more important. If you find a decent price in the inner city or a well connected area, this should be a good investment.
Another important thing, at least for me, is the air quality. In some parts of Belgrade - for instance Neimar/Cubura where I live - some people still use wood or coal for heating and supplemental heating. In the winter, you literally see and smell what you breathe.

ceda_urosevic 18:16 10.02.2008

Re: In Belgrade,

nsarski
If you find a decent price in the inner city or a well connected area, this should be a good investment.

No way.
But, best of luck! You'll need it.

DzoHusafet 18:24 10.02.2008

Belgrade flat

If you are buying a flat ONLY for investment than it is not good. There is much better way to invest your money.

bobo 18:41 10.02.2008

...

People, buying a flat is NOT an investment, unless you have a few hundred thousand in cash to spare.

GM Dubravsky 18:48 10.02.2008

A place in Belgrade

Now looky here Rose, I guess it's rather simple.
As Serbia born and bred, I've been toying with the idea to buy something decent in Belgrade, you know summer vacation and a place to retire to.
I've seen a few apartments downtown Belgrade, huge, but in a desperate need of some solid refurbishing. Meaning, buying plus investing into plumbing/painting + waiting, definitely no way. Then I went netbrowsing and saw this AmbasadorMRealEstate. You ought to see that. A whole new ballgame.
I agree with nsarski, either you bite the bullet and go big downtown or you forget it.
In any case, if you want to invest, you may wish to try something else.

Adam von Trott zu Solz 18:53 10.02.2008

Flat

Hmmm. Tough one.

Prices will go higher, that's for sure. The latest reason is that people from Montenegro, who sold their real property (land, houses etc.) on the seaside to the Russians for a way too overpriced ammounts, are investing their money mainly in the Belgrade real estate business (or immovable property, as known in the civil law jurisdictions).

It is reasonable to estimate that salaries are going to be higher in the resonable time, so consequently prices are not going to go down. There is constant demand for flats on the Belgrade's real estate market, and there is a deficite of some estimated 13000 flats. That just can't be solved in the near future.

So, if you are looking for a flat as a investment, then hmm... I'll maybe suggest to consider some older flat in the parts of New Belgrade near the Sava river. Older means that they are built some 30 years ago. That part of New Belgrade is next on the path of rapid development of that part of the city. Big shopping malls are already there, heavy industry is shifting to the suburban areas, and SMEs are relocating their offices from the crowded downtown Belgrade and expensive New Belgrade areas arround the Arena to this part of the NB.

To be more specific, you could check out the 4-floor or 2-floor buildings in the Blok 45 or Blok 70 (not the so-called 'skyscrapers" also in that Bloks!); they are built some 30 years ago, pretty solid, rooms are spacy and there is much light; they have district heating, there is much space between buildings, parking space, river is near by, and the connection with the city center is good. Prices here are still reasonable. They are going to go up when the new bridge over the Sava river is going to be built, and that is in the next year or two!

I'm writing this on-line, and economics is not high on my English books reading list, so I hope you will catch my thoughts :)

Best regards.

MuadDib 21:59 10.02.2008

Re: Flat

they are built some 30 years ago, pretty solid, rooms are spacy and there is much light; they have district heating, there is much space between buildings, parking space, river is near by, and the connection with the city center is good. Prices here are still reasonable.

Actually I LIVE there for 15 years and I can only agree & confirm I'm not going to move from here (Blok 44) after living so many years in different parts of the old city.

Jukie 19:01 10.02.2008

It is tricky

On one hand, nsarski gave you the good advice. If you buy something out "in the woods", you will need several hours to get to the places of interest (such as Mamut Megastore or Mercator or wherever), especially if you use public transport to reduce your carbon footprint :)
I have also noticed that in many "satellite suburbs" you have fair or good traffic lines toward the city, but if you want to go from one suburb to another, you often need to go downtown first and then take another line toward the other suburb (try getting from Banjica to the municipality building of Vozdovac - you have to go to Karadjordjev Park and take the "31" bus, which returns down the same street for 1.5-2 bus stations before branching out, and no, it does not have a stop at the College of Veterinary medicine).

On the other hand, you seem like a person who likes to live in tranquility of nature and countryside. I don't think you would be happy living in downtown Belgrade. It is loud, smoky, gray, and streets are suprisingly quite narrow, as if you were walking in a canyon/gorge.

oldtajmer 19:16 10.02.2008

Let me know when you figure it out

because I've had the same dilemma for a couple of years now.

KafaJeGotova 20:01 10.02.2008

my advice

and there's all that new construction going on

be EXTRA careful when/if buying these ‘new construction’ flats! triple check the papers and the firm that is doing the construction!
brankica and the ‘insajder’ crew haven’t done ‘construction mafia’ yet…

ceda_urosevic 22:11 10.02.2008

Re: my advice

check flat's walls as well, 'cause they are usually thick as papers mentioned by KafaJeGotova...

MightyNora 20:24 10.02.2008

Same problem here...

...so my advice is to see what do you need flat for ofc. Then make a list of criteria, you are going to use to define where is going to be the location. Then try to find the best on that location for the money you have.

3 step process that could last for years :)

goodluck

RiskyBiz 22:34 10.02.2008

Location, location, location

As one of the previous posters mentioned, location is everything. If you want to be able to sell quickly and get your money back, choose one of the top 3 most popular locations for people with money.

I wouldn't go anywhere near one of those old commie blocks, doesn't matter how spacious the flats are. They're ugly, falling apart, no maintenance is ever carried out and there's no such thing as communal responsibility or obligation.

The new buildings have been built as cheaply as possible for maximum profit and look like the new 'commie ghettos'.

Local and western taste is completely different and as a westerner I would prefer an apartment in one of the old buildings in the centre of town. They have gorgeous facades (but in desperate need of a good clean), huge rooms, high ceilings and fantastic finishes like woodwork and fancy cornices.

However, they're tightly held and if you do manage to stumble across one it will be expensive.

man ray loves me 20:07 11.02.2008

Re: Location, location, location

I would prefer an apartment in one of the old buildings in the centre of town.

yes, but on the downside you're much likely to find a distinguished upper crust commie family in one of those...

buda milic 23:08 10.02.2008

melrose place

It takes time, but the best thing is to join the money with some other interested people and build a small appart. building. It will cost you around 1000e/m2. And you'll get your own Melrose Place:)

PinkBunny 01:53 11.02.2008

why Belgrade?

Why would anyone want to live in Belgrade, or Serbia for that matter, if he can choose not to?
How about Vienna, Prague, Budapest or anything even moderately civilized with a chance of meeting more than 5.6 pleasant people per km2? Real estate is probably cheaper there too over these horribly inflated prices on local market.
Anyway I am waiting for Serbian mortgage crisis that is bound to happen in next decade or so the way things are going over here :)

Brooklyn 10:03 11.02.2008

actually,

Prices seem very high in relation to typical salaries.

if average 2bdr in belgrade costs 100,000, and average monthly salary is 500 euros, it takes 16.67 annual salaries to buy it.

in london, average 2bdr costs £350,000 and average monthly net salary is £1,500, so it takes 19.44 years to buy it.

Covek u belom 15:34 11.02.2008

Re: actually,

Brooklyn
if average 2bdr in belgrade costs 100,000, and average monthly salary is 500 euros, it takes 16.67 annual salaries to buy it.

in london, average 2bdr costs £350,000 and average monthly net salary is £1,500, so it takes 19.44 years to buy it.

Average monthly salary is not near 500e in Serbia (or Belgrade). Average monthly salary is much more then 1500 GBP in London. So ur calculation doesn't hold at all.

Brooklyn 15:55 11.02.2008

Re: actually,

Average monthly salary is not near 500e in Serbia (or Belgrade). Average monthly salary is much more then 1500 GBP in London. So ur calculation doesn't hold at all.

i think it's a pretty good approximation. for example, here you can see offical numbers for average net monthly salary in bg a year and a half ago. it was 350 euros. in last year and a half has gone up at least 20%, and we both know that official statistics doesn't show a lot of real income.

for london, google average salary in london, pick the source you like, and then bear in mind that what you see is gross annual salary. take 25% off that, and you'll get net salary.

so, as you can see, my calcs, hold quite well :)

Covek u belom 16:59 11.02.2008

Re: actually,

Brooklyn
for example, here you can see offical numbers for average net monthly salary in bg a year and a half ago. it was 350 euros. in last year and a half has gone up at least 20%, and we both know that official statistics doesn't show a lot of real income.

Exact numbers you have here. On today's exchange rate you can buy only 415 euros for an average salary. And all of that according to enormously depreciated euro, whose realistic value is 120-130 dinars instead of 83!

for london, google average salary in london, pick the source you like, and then bear in mind that what you see is gross annual salary. take 25% off that, and you'll get net salary.

Here are accurate data, page 7, London, 581 GBP gross salary per week which gives around 2518 GPB per month, and with 25% deduction, gives nearly 1900 GBP net per month (1888).

If you make your calculation again, you'll see that for Belgrade is exactly 20 years to buy 2bdr avg flat, and for London is only 15 years. And London is the second most expensive city in the world!

Brooklyn 17:24 11.02.2008

Re: actually,

And all of that according to enormously depreciated euro, which realistic value is 120-130 dinars instead of 83!

really, how did you calculate that?

anyways, it is just like i said, i don't know for what year is 415 euro for, but if you add undeclared income, it would make at least 500 euros.

my clacs stand for london as well, if you take your london numbers and add in the diferrence in costs, such as maintanance fees and taxes, affordability is about the same.

and all this should mean that bgd is not as undervalued as some seem to hope, but it's not necessary overvalued either. affordability is about the same in new york as well, and both london and nyc are holding up relatively quite well in this market.

of course, this is just one determinant. we'll see what kind of inflow of speculative capital we'll have. if you google a little, you'll see that bulgarians are afraid they'll lose some money to bgd. so maybe, for those up for speculative investments it could be good.

Brooklyn 18:06 11.02.2008

Re: actually,

of course, we can expect for serbian economy to grow faster than the uk, so that should drive price up in next 10 years or so.

legend 12:07 11.02.2008

....buy....

zone 1, zone 2, almost whatever you buy, it will finally be good invesment. prices are going wild on daily base and it will be like that for another 4-5 years...

djorzor 14:13 11.02.2008

Real estate business in Belgrade

A friend of mine, who is civil engineer, is working for huge international construction company in Belgrade.

About a year ago, he asked his boss, Austrian guy: “Mr. ****, who needs hundreds thousands square meters office space we are building in Belgrade?”

Answer was: “Dear Mr. *****, in foreseeable future Belgrade will be one of three regional centers in Europe and everything we are building now will be priceless.”

Brooklyn 14:18 11.02.2008

Re: Real estate business in Belgrade

which are the other 2? (regional centers in europe)

BeogradjaninOdFloride 13:42 24.02.2008

US Subprime crisis...

Is shaking the world…Buying an apartment in US could be considered so bad investment in the view of exploding numbers of the foreclosures and huge inventory so there is no solution at this point…