Plači za nas, Argentino

nsarski RSS / 13.10.2008. u 20:20

 

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Tokom jeseni 2001., avioni iz Buenos Airesa za USA su bili puni mladih putnika koji su dolazili na jedan ili dva dana. Razlog: svi su ocekivali da ce ekonomija Argentine da bankrotira, i ljudi su dolazili da svoj novac poloze u americke banke. Strahovanja su se ostvarila, i Argentina je par meseci kasnije bankrotirala.
Nekoliko godina pred kolaps, Argentina je bila miljence svetskog ekonomskog sistema. U stopu su pratili svaki savet MMF-a, argentinski pesos je imao 1:1 paritet sa americkim dolarom, reforme su izvodjene prema svim detaljima koje je nalagao globalni kapital. Bilo je svejedno da li u bankama drzite pezose ili dolare. Kad je doslo do kraha, pesos je pao za 60%, vise nije bilo svejedno koju valutu drzite u banci, pa su cak i americke banke u Argentini dolarske iznose pretvorile u (sada obezvredjene) pezose i samo tako ste mogli da podignete svoj novac. Jedino ako ste novac drzali u americkim bankama u Americi, mogli ste da ga podignete u dolarskom iznosu. Eto zato su avioni tih dana bili puni.
Ovo sto dole sledi je dopis jednog Amerikanca iz Buenos Airesa. On je novinar, i zivi u Kostariki.

 

Plači za nas, Argentino

11. oktobar 2008 

Iako sam, nazalost, proveo veci deo zivota u potpunom neznanju, nikad nisam pomisljao da cu jednog dana nogom krociti u Argentinu. Opet, takodje nikad nisam pomisljao da cu biti svedok toga da je americka administracija u svom militarizmu i korupciju nadmasila cak i najgore diktature Latinske Amerike.
I eto, sada sam u poseti Buenos Airesu, bas u pravo vreme da na argentinskoj TV vidim izduzene face bankara koji tvrde da je poklon od $700 milijardi americkim bogatasima nesto sto treba, sto mora da se uradi da bi se spasla americka ekonomija. I da vidim takodje clanove kongresa kako urlaju da ce izvlacenje iz bule proci samo preko njih mrtvih (hmmm...) pre nego sto udare pecat na ono sto moraju.
Kad smo kod kucica, oni su omiljeni ovde u Buenos Airesu, zbog cega imaju veliki plus sa mog stanovista, iako moram da pazim gde stajem jer gradjani nisu revnosni u uklanjanju proizvoda svojih ljubimaca, sto me, opet, vraca na ono vadjenje iz bule, zapanjujucu kolicinu sveze love koju ce Fed da izbaci u korist gladnih sakala sto su napakovali karte americke ekonomske kuce, tako da ni najveci lakeji lakeja nisu imali obraza da govore o "slobodnom trzistu".
Oni su do krajnosti bez stida, ove zivotinje, koji nam jos uvek drze lekcije o sjajnim prednostima neregulisanog kapitalizma, jer, znate, on je toooliko dobar za sve nas. Evo ga sef Svetske Trgovinske Organizacije Paskal Lami (prema Rojtersu): "Trenutni uragan koji je udario na trziste finansija ne sme da odvrati svetsku zajednicu od razvijanja vece ekonomske integrisanosti i otvorenosti..."
Zasto ne sme? Pa, kako nas je blagoizvoleo informisati, "u finansijskoj krizi i ekonomskim potresima, posebno kada cene hrane naglo rastu, osiromaseni potrosaci moraju da vide kako njihova ekonomska moc raste, a ne slabi."
Dirljivo, ha? Njega najvise brinu osiromaseni potrosaci.
Ako u to verujete, ja imam par divnih hipotekarnih sekjuritis da vam ponudim.
Barem su zaludjenici za istoriju zadovoljni ovih uzasnih dana, jer smo upravo svedoci najvece pljacke drustvenih dobara koja se ikad dogodila. I to sve na svetlu dana, uz uzasnu, nasilno sprovedenu uredbu koju je odobrio Kongres, toliko punu prezira prema izbornoj bazi, da su svi oni prikazani na naslovnoj strani Buenos Aires Heralda, Nensi Pelosi, Barni Frank i gomila drugih iz te bande lopova koji se osmehuju prolasku uredbe, te monumentalne gomile pseceg izmeta (to je jedna od tema za danas) tako da svi izgledaju kao da su uzeli ogromnu dozu azot oksida ("gas smejavac").
Pa, i nama su uvalili nesto veliko, takodje, ali niko od nas se ne smeje, i boli kad se sedne.
Zanimljivo je da sam se nasao u Argentini tokom ovog naseg zajednickog uvaljivanja, jer Argentinci znaju par stvari, ili milijardu stvari, o uvaljivanju. Njihova je zemlja pretrpela totalni ekonomski kolaps pocetkom ove decenije koji je rasturio njihovu srednju klasu. Medjutim, pojavila se i srecna okolnost: zbog krize je zemlja defoltirala, a potom se izvukla iz ogromnih "dugova" koje je imala prema Svetskoj Banci i MMF-u (oba stacionirani u Vasingtonu), ovim zaista divnim organizacijama za one koji veruju u buducnost neo-feudalizma.
Godine 2006. Argentinci su isplatili svoje dugove ovim zelenasima. Veci deo dugova je pokriven uz pomoc Huga Chaveza, koji je kupio Argentinske papire. (Ovo je samo osecaj, ali nesto mi govori da se ovo nece desiti u nasem slucaju).
Iako su razlozi drugaciji, mi idemo istim putem. Ni ne pomisljajte da se ce sve zavrsiti sa $700 milijardi. Pijavice iz slobodnog trzista nece prestati da sisaju. Oni ne mogu da prestanu. To im je u krvi, time su zarazeni. I kao i svi adikti, ukrasce svaki dolar da bi podmirili svoju potrebu, a onda ce doci po jos.
I kao i svi adikti, oni jos i lazu! Evo ga bivsi CEO Feni Mej-a, Danijel Mad (prema recima Carla Dahiga iz International Heral Tribjuna):
"Skoro niko ovo nije ocekivao. Nije fer da nas okrivljujete sto nismo mogli da predvidimo nezamisalivo"
I niko nije pomisljao da se avioni mogu zakucati u solitere, takodje. Isuse! Da li se ovaj zeza? Svako ko je malo pametniji od brokolija je znao da je krvoprolice neizbezno. Istina, ovim se iskljucuju neki kao Dzordz W. Bus, na primer, ali on nikad nije ni bio na kormilu (pitajte Dika Cejnija, ako ga negde nadjete), tako da se on ne racuna.
Oni koji se racunaju (i broje pokradenu lovu) su lesinari koji su nas opljackali, uz pomoc svoje marionete predsednika, koristeci divne metode kao sto su dva besmislana rata, bezumno ukidanje poreza, pljacka od strane Medicare/Farmaceutske industrije, vojni ugovori...
Ali, sve je to decja igra u poredjenju sa velikim gambitom, namerno izazvanom krizom koja im ostavlja sve ovo opljackano u rukama. Sema da se izgladni drzava kako bi se nahranio fasisticki monstrum sada se vidi ogoljena u svom svojem megalomanskom lopovskom sjaju. Oprostite se sa penzijama. Oprostite se sa Medicare-om. Oprostite se sa besplatnim obrazovanjem, staged je od njega ostalo. Svojom neprekidnom mantrom o divotama privatizacije, ove derikoze su ucinile sve sto su mogle da pripreme narod na najveci transfer bogatstva u istoriji.
Mislim da svi, izuzev onih koji imaju mozak koliko i brokoli (izvinjavam se ovom divnom povrcu sto ga vec drugi put vredjam), svi gradjani razumeju o cemu se radi, I prilicno su besni zbog terapije koju su primili. Ali - nema veze. Sta se moze. Losa sreca. Pa, tako je. Paraziti na vlasti se uopste ne potresaju zbog nase moralne pobede. Uz skriveni prezir, oni nas poducavaju da, ako ne zauzmemo isravnu poziciju I primimo ono sto je dobro za nas, "sistem ce da propadne".
Pa, znate sta? On upravo propada. Samo od marta meseca do danas, oteli su nam preko trillion dolara (kradja of $700 milijardi, $85 milijardi za AIG, $200 milijardi za Feni Mej i Fredi Mek, I $29 milijardi "pomoci" za J.P. Morgan kompaniju), i ceo efekat ovoga i drugih pljacki koje ce doci, je da malo odlozi neizbezaz kraj. Jos ce biti bankrotiranih banki, jos ce ustedjevine gradjana biti pokradene, jos ce biti propalih kompanija, jos ce biti pokradenih penzija, i nezaposlenost i inflacija ce se umnogostruciti.
Jedino je pitanje: koliko cemo jos krvariti, i koliko dugo ce to trajati.
Da li nam iskustvo Argentine moze biti neki putokaz? Od difolta 2002., godisnji rast je bio oko 8 procenata, i posetilac danasnjeg Buenos Airesa ce tesko primetiti ostatke nedavnog ekonomskog uzasa. Ipak, mnogi Argentici ce vam reci da njihova zemlja vise nije ista, posle strahovitog udarca koji je pretrpela, i da se nikada nece sasvim oporaviti. S pozitivne strane, ukupan dug Juzne Amerike MMF-u, prema Yes! Magazinu, je drasticno smanjen od $42.9 milijardi u 2004. do $108 miliona u $2007.
Da li ovo moze da na pomogne da prezivimo trenutno sklizavanje nase zemlje u pakao, ili da predvidimo sta ce se iz naseg pepela podici? Ko zna? Ono sto se zna, medjutim, je da okretanje kola srece nije proslo neprimeceno.
U susretu sa predsednicom Argentine Kristine Fernandez de Kirrchner pre neki dan u Buenos Airesu, predsednca Cilea Misel Bachelet, prema Buenos Aires Herald-u, je rekla:
"Ironicno je da zemlje koje su nam drzale predavanja o tome sta treba raditi (na ekonomskom planu) su sada suocene sa krizom (takvih razmera). U svakom slucaju, nase zemlje (Latinske Amerike) su dovoljno jake da (stoje na svojim nogama) i izbore se sa ovom krizom".
Vama na cast, señoras presidentes, ovo je s mukom zaradjena poslednja rec. U ovom trenutnom nasem rasulu koje su izazvali isti oni vampiri sto su vas kontinent doveli na ivicu zivota, matora kucka je zakucala i na vrata USA. (Znam da bi se mogla ovde negde ubaciti jos neka referenca na kucke).
Samo jos jedno pitanje, por favor: Ima li jedna od vas dve pri ruci maramicu?

 



Komentari (167)

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gordanac gordanac 20:32 13.10.2008

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Evropa reaguje na krizu

"3. oktobar 2008. | 00:19 -> 19:55 | Izvor: B92, Beta, Tanjug
Pariz, Vašington -- Vlade država Evropske unije najavile su da će obezbediti oko 2.000 milijardi dolara za garancije bankarskih kredita i druge hitne potrebe. "


Sa već izglasanih 700 (+150) milijardi dolara od USA to je blizu 3000 milijardi dolara....
Nisam sigurna da ljudi razumeju KOLIKO je to PRAVIH NOVACA (cca to je ČETIRI Holandije, ukupno, sve, a Holandija je 17 ekonomija sveta)

Koliko god gorčine bilo u tekstu tog "jednog Amerikanca" - verovatno nije dovoljno.....
Svet će potpuno drugačije izgledati posle ove finansijske krize...


nsarski nsarski 20:43 13.10.2008

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Svet će potpuno drugačije izgledati posle ove finansijske krize...

Da, ja nisam nikiakav strucnjak za ekonomiju, ali mislim da je ovo pocetak neceg drugog...
Milan Novković Milan Novković 20:50 13.10.2008

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Sa već izglasanih 700 (+150) milijardi dolara od USA to je blizu 3000 milijardi dolara

2,000 garancija i 700 za kupovinu toxic securities nije ista stvar.

Garancija nije trosak dok je neko ne potegne.

Danas kasnim sa vestima ali u UK, npr, garancija se ne daje svim nego vecim bankama, u čije zdravlje država sad ima "solidan" uvid.

Danas su potegnute i prve pare za dokapitalizaciju 3 banke u UK i po reakciji Barclays banke, koja nije prihvatila keš nego uzima iz alternativnih izvora, ja zaključujem da je država ovde iskoristila priliku da uzme što više akcija u bankama pa postoji mogućnost da izvučemo (kao poreski obveznici) i neki profit iz operacije, koliko to veze politike i biznisa dozvoljavaju :)
Milan Novković Milan Novković 20:53 13.10.2008

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nsarski
Svet će potpuno drugačije izgledati posle ove finansijske krize...Da, ja nisam nikiakav strucnjak za ekonomiju, ali mislim da je ovo pocetak neceg drugog...

Teško, ja mislim da je to drugo počelo ima već neko vreme sa Kinom, Indijom, Brazilom i Rusijom.

Ovo je samo "potez" u poodmakloj igri :)
nsarski nsarski 20:55 13.10.2008

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Ovo je samo "potez" u poodmakloj igri :)

Brazil je, na primer, nedavno trazio da igra vecu ulogu u svetskom ekonomskom poretku. A secam se da je pre mnogo godina Brazil bio zariste krize zaduzenosti kod MMF-a.
gordanac gordanac 20:57 13.10.2008

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UK i USA "model" nisu isti (UK, odnosno Gordon Brown je pokazao (ne)očekivanu kreativnost u rešenju), a to sve tek nije isto sa Akcionim planom EU.
Ali ja i ne govorim o "strukturi infuzije u dehidrirano finansijsko tržište", prvo jer mislim da nije ni važno, a drugo - jasnije se vide dimenzije "kockarskog duga" koji su napravili ljudi i nedostatak regulative.
Pri čemu (verovatno) ništa nije nezakonito, ali će posledice biti dugoročne i mnogima danas - nesagledive.

Upravljanje krizom i kontrola štete je u toku, i ja ne sumnjam da će se izvesti prema planu, samo smatram da nikada nije bila ovolika i ovakva.
(A "strukturu" znam, samo mislim da bi ljudim ato bilo dosadno...)
Ninoslav Randjelovic Ninoslav Randjelovic 20:57 13.10.2008

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Da, ja nisam nikiakav strucnjak za ekonomiju, ali mislim da je ovo pocetak neceg drugog..

Na jedan sasvim treci nacin....
gordanac gordanac 21:01 13.10.2008

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Milan Novković
Ovo je samo "potez" u poodmakloj igri :)

Nije, Milane.
Ovo je potpuno nova igra.
Milan Novković Milan Novković 21:08 13.10.2008

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nsarski
Ovo je samo "potez" u poodmakloj igri :)Brazil je, na primer, nedavno trazio da igra vecu ulogu u svetskom ekonomskom poretku. A secam se da je pre mnogo godina Brazil bio zariste krize zaduzenosti kod MMF-a.

Ja sam u počeku verovao u solidnu "igračku" komponentu, a ne samo stihijsku, uglavnom po prirodi ljubavi prema teorijama zavere :) i nekim tradign patterns.

Onda je vera prerasla u fundamentalizam kako sam čuo da su Fredie and Fannie agresivnije pakovali toxic stuff mesecima pre krize, pa da vlada bila spremna da ih pusti da potonu, pa su Kinezi rekli no-no inače radimo dumping dolara, da bih na kraju saznao da stranci u ovom milom dvojcu imaju oko 1,300 milijardi, od toga Kinezi 370.

Jasno mi je da je pustiti dvojac niz vodu bilo konvinijent, samo mi nije bilo jasno kako se može očekivati da Kinezi, sa debelo preko 1,000 milijardi rezervi to prećute. Znači, nije se očekivalo, sve su ovo pametni ljudi, nego je strategija suptilnija, prvo idu vika i buka, cenkanje, i nama amaterima će trebati vremena dok ukapiramo, tj naziremo neki kvalitet u igri, ali ne i kvantitet.
nsarski nsarski 21:11 13.10.2008

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Znači, nije se očekivalo, sve su ovo pametni ljudi, nego je strategija suptilnija, prvo idu vika i buka, cenkanje

Toooo, Milane, jabuko sa grane!!!. Otherwise, to se zove disaster kapitalizam, ili sok doktrina ako vise volis:)))
Milan Novković Milan Novković 21:18 13.10.2008

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gordanac
Milan NovkovićOvo je samo "potez" u poodmakloj igri :)Nije, Milane.Ovo je potpuno nova igra.

Pa ne znam, godinama je jasno da je američka igra unsustainable, prosto ne može da se u proizvodnji viška vrednosi parira zahuktaloj emerging ekonomiji rastom produktivnosti u visoko razvijenoj ekonomiji, ratovi sve skuplji, dugovi sve veći.

I otpisivanje dugova samo kupuje vreme, a "zlikovci" neće da ih otpišu pa igra postaje interesantnija :)

Igra jeste stara, "The Rise of the Rest", po mom mišljenju, ne bi trebalo da bude long-term gubitnika, ali mi živimo prekratko da bismo long term pričom nakranili short term monstrume u nama.
gordanac gordanac 21:26 13.10.2008

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Pa ne znam, godinama je jasno da je američka igra unsustainable, prosto ne može da se u proizvodnji viška vrednosi parira zahuktaloj emerging ekonomiji rastom produktivnosti u visoko razvijenoj ekonomiji, ratovi sve skuplji, dugovi sve veći.

I otpisivanje dugova samo kupuje vreme, a "zlikovci" neće da ih otpišu pa igra postaje interesantnija :)

Igra jeste stara, "The Rise of the Rest", po mom mišljenju, ne bi trebalo da bude long-term gubitnika, ali mi živimo prekratko da bismo long term pričom nakranili short term monstrume u nama.

Mislim da, na žalost, opet nisi u pravu.
To što si napisao, čini mi se, ima ton da "će sve ovo trajati neko vreme, pa će se sve manje-više vratiti na staro", a ja mislim - da neće. Svet finansija i ekonomije kakav si poznavao je - go, went, gone, čini mi se.
Pročitaj Akcioni plan EU, izjave Zelika (WB), Paskal Lamija (WTO) ili IMF-a .....menjaće se korenito sve te institucije i dolazi uspostavljanje potpuno novih pravila. Razmere ove krize su još uvek mnogima nezamislive. Rekla sam već - nemam ja sumnji da će "upravljanje krizom i kontrola štete" biti na kraju uspešno, ali to NIJE kriza sa kraj osamdesetih i NIJE kriza kakvu smo mi upoznali. Ovo je ozbiljna kriza osnovnih pravila po kojima je tržište funksionisalo i još gore - kriza poverenja. Otuda takva reakcija i USA i EU. (pri čemu, ponavljam, mislim da je UK napravila najbolji mogući potez).
Nema alternativa - osim preuzimanja odgovornosti od strane države. A to je poprilična novost za sve njih (i nas).
ivana23 ivana23 21:29 13.10.2008

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Gordon Braun se seli iz čuvene rezidencije u Dauning stritu

Britanski premijer Gordon Braun rešio je da prekine sa tradicijom dugom više od 275 godina i da se iz Dauning strita broj 10 preseli u susednu rezidenciju koja se nalazi na broju 12
Odluka je rezultat trenutne finansijske krize u kojoj se zemlja nalazi i koja je primorala premijera da zatraži veći prostor za sebe i svoje ključne savetnike koji se bave globalnim previranjima na svetskom tržištu.

Tanjug
nsarski nsarski 21:33 13.10.2008

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"The Rise of the Rest",

Ovo je, po mom neukom misljenju, pre bio The Rise of the Machines. Sve te kompjuterske transakcije, to ludilo od ekonomije (koju "samo par ljudi na svetu razumeju" su konstruisali kompjuterski modeli ( kumovali im kvantni fizicari, btw), koji iz vakuuma proizvode "nesto". I sada su napravili Big Bang. Kakav LHC da nam dodje glave - this is the real Bang!
gordanac gordanac 21:33 13.10.2008

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:))
majstor!
Tek sad će svi ukapirati razmere krize.
Kako to nsarski zove?
Kognitivna disonanca.
"WHAT?! PM is NOT in Dauning 10? What has happened?!
"Oh, nothing, darling, some crisis is going on..."
nsarski nsarski 21:35 13.10.2008

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majstor!

Sa cuvenom porukom "i mi stezemo kais".
maksa83 maksa83 22:20 13.10.2008

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Ovo je, po mom neukom misljenju, pre bio The Rise of the Machines. Sve te kompjuterske transakcije, to ludilo od ekonomije (koju "samo par ljudi na svetu razumeju" su konstruisali kompjuterski modeli ( kumovali im kvantni fizicari, btw),


Skroz tako. Da ne smaram više sa Talebom, jedan od viđenijih je npr. Emanuel Derman koji je svoje iskustvo dokumentovao u knjizi My Life As A Quant, evo ga isečak koji govori o prirodi korišćenih modela. Godina je 2004., dakle dosta njih je bilo svesno opasnosti i nesavršenosti alata koje koriste:

Beware of Economists Bearing Greek Symbols
by Emanuel Derman
“In physics it takes three laws to explain 99% of the data; in finance it takes more than 99 laws to explain about 3%.” So quipped MIT finance professor Andrew Lo at a dinner I once attended. Economists, he added, consequently suffer from physics envy. Now I was trained as a theoretical physicist in the 1960s and 1970s, the glory years of elementary particle physics. Our heroes were Einstein, Dirac, Gell-Mann and Feynman—Nobelists all, visionaries who conjured up new mental worlds and the equations that went with them. And these new mental worlds, miraculously, not only corresponded to the physical world we inhabit, but also accurately predicted the existence of weird and previously unobserved particles. How could imagination and mathematics be so powerful in apprehending the world outside our heads?
Years later, I came to work at Goldman Sachs in the field of quantitative finance, the branch of economics concerned with calculating the fair value of securities. At first I was charmed by the resemblance between the finance papers I now studied and the physics papers I used to read and write. Then, as I read further, I discovered that economists love formal mathematics much more than physicists do. Many economic
journals encourage—or even demand—a faux-rigorous style with multitudes of axioms and lemmas in numbers that tend to be inversely proportional to their efficacy in the real world.

Why are economists trained so formally? It makes sense to axiomatize adiscipline when the axioms are true (or almost so) and have strong predictive power. That’s the case for euclidean geometry, for example, as well as Maxwell’s electromagnetic theory, where many valid, useful, and accurate predictions follow from
applying the laws of deduction to a few initial assumptions. But economists seem to have embraced formality and physics envy without the corresponding benefits of accuracy or predictability. In physics, Maxwell’s theory and quantum mechanics allow you to predict the way an electron spins about its own axis inside a hydrogen atom to an accuracy of twelve decimal places. Something that accurate isn’t just a model—it’s a law. In economics, by contrast, there are no laws at all, only models, and you’re immensely lucky if you can predict up from down.

When people build models to value securities, they make all sorts of imaginative assumptions that are then formulated mathematically. For example, quantitative strategists at investment banks or hedge funds value currently fashionable collateralized default obligations (which provide default insurance on baskets of large numbers of bonds) by assuming that each bond-issuing company is represented by an imaginary
variable. That variable evolves randomly through time—like smoke diffusing across a room—until it crosses an imaginary default boundary in the future, at which point the company will default on all of its debt. It’s an elegant mental construct and not an unreasonable way to model the random chance of a company doing badly enough to default. But it’s not literally true. It’s still a model, a toy, a limited picture—despite the fancy mathematics. No wonder the picture often breaks down and causes havoc, as happened in credit markets last May.
Clearly, then, when someone shows you an economic or financial model that involves mathematics, you should understand that, despite the confident appearance of the equations, what lies beneath is a substrate of great simplification and—sometimes— great and wonderful imagination. That’s not a bad thing—financial markets are all about imagination. But you should never forget that even the best financial model can never be
truly valid because, unlike the physical world, the mental world of securities and economics is much less amenable to the power of mathematics.
crossover crossover 22:58 13.10.2008

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But you should never forget that even the best financial model can never be truly valid because, unlike the physical world, the mental world of securities and economics is much less amenable to the power of mathematics.

Најбоље увек долази на крају. Занимљиво је како економисти често избегавају разговор када се потегне овај аргумент, или у најбољем случају разлоге траже на другим местима.
nsarski nsarski 22:59 13.10.2008

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Ovo je potpuno nova igra.

Pre oko 25 godina je Fukujama napisao "The End of History" sa tezom:
What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government."

Mozda je ovo "The End of Economy"? Milane, ako napises ovakvu knjigu, pomeni me u acknowledgementu.:))))
Milan Novković Milan Novković 23:02 13.10.2008

Re: ---

Mislim da, na žalost, opet nisi u pravu.
To što si napisao, čini mi se, ima ton da "će sve ovo trajati neko vreme, pa će se sve manje-više vratiti na staro", a ja mislim - da neće. Svet finansija i ekonomije kakav si poznavao je - go, went, gone, čini mi se.

Možda se opet nismo razumeli - "stara" igra o kojoj ja pričam je proces gde ostatak sveta ("the rest" pristiže ("the rise" Ameriku. A Americi se to ne sviđa.

Za mene "staro" kako ti misliš da ga ja zamišljam ne postoji već neko duže vreme. Pa tako nema ni vraćanja.

U reformama o kojima ti pričaš se priča već duže vreme. Derivati u prekomernim količinama, kao trulež, su instrument već duže vreme. Ali minoran u poređenju sa instrumentom koji se zove "hegemonija dolara".

Iz krize i velikog dela promena će anglo-saksonci ponovo izaći kao najveći dobitnici, kao i u prošlosti, kad je u pitanju finansijski inženjering. Samo uspon ostatka sveta neće prestati, samo će štucnuti na kratko.

Šta je kriza a šta šteta zavisi od perspektive i igrača. I u robusnoj i u adaptivnoj kontroli ovde je dovoljna likvidnost. Kao prvi i najveći katalizator, on-off switch. Sa njim ne pališ drvo, nego mahovinu. Prava masa je u "pravim" akcijama (vlasništvom nad firmama), dugovima i ekonomiji. Ja mislim :) Nad likvidnošću postoje gospodari,da ih ne navodim, recimo da jedva i Kina uspeva da se uključi u kolo.

Prosto, ovo mi je bilo poslednje, najbanalnije i pomalo neverovatno, ja bih rekao da ili je Paulson debil, ili ga mrzi da se zamara jezičkim finesama, ili zna da već svi znaju šta je igra kad je pre dan-dva rekao da očekuju još banaka koje će da bakrotiraju u US. Nije debil, ne mrzi ga ništa, zna da to nije rečnik, ja mislim, i ko je juče imao milion mogao je znati da će danas završiti sa dva. Mogao je znati da se tržište na silu guralo na dole pre nekoliko dana da bi se danas kupovalo..

Ogromna većina nema milion, mnogi od onih što ga imaju nisu ga dobili na talenat. Ostali su, znači, talentovani (današni ogroman rast u SP500 futures su, npr, "svi" očekivali).

Ovo od Paulsona je, npr, po meni vulgaran potez (u neočekivanoj "jefinoj" panici nastavljaju da prodaju oni koji manje znaju). Vanredno beskrupulozan. Od juče i mediji u UK (poneki) počinju da se pitajup da li oni, u stvari, mediji, pomažu (mediji - treći katalizator) onoj normalnoj ogromnoj većini da prodaju kad je najjeftinije da bi "talentovani" kupovali (ima u tradingu i pravilo - kad svi počnu da prodaju vreme je da se počne sa kupovinom).

Sitna igra, znači, u poređenu sa velikom - kako usporiti (ne zaustaviti ili mu pobeći) ostatak sveta i usput obogatiti sebe i svoj tim.

Obrazac koji ja vidim je "pumpa" - dugoročnije usisavanje realnog, opipljivog, sporo pomerljivog, pa vraćanje uz naglo pražnjenje suprotnosti :)
nsarski nsarski 23:07 13.10.2008

Re: ---

ja bih rekao da ili je Paulson debil, ili ga mrzi da se zamara jezičkim finesama

Mozda je u ovome kljuc (citiram danasnjeg Nobelovca Krugmana, iz NY Timesa):
It’s hard to avoid the sense that Mr. Paulson’s initial response was distorted by ideology.

Nit glup. nit ga mrzi, vec zaslepljen ideologijom/
gordanac gordanac 23:12 13.10.2008

Re: ---

Mozda je ovo "The End of Economy"?

:))
Mislim da nije to, već "The Beginning of Regulation" (iz mnogo razloga sada pomislih da to može biti - još gore! :))
Najjednostavnije :
- kao što su "Patriotic Act" i slični zakoni i de iure i de facto "suzili prostor" koji su do tada zauzimali propisi o ljudskim i građanskim pravima, tako će i "New Regulation" da de iure i de facto upravlja finansijskim tržištima (ali ne svim - that`s The Catch - 22 or whatever). Ono prvo je prošlo uz dobrovoljan pristanak jer je strah od terorizma ogroman, ovo drugo će isto - jer je želja za "povratkom sigurnosti i poverenja" - ogromna.
Šta ne valja u toj slici?
(that is the question :))
Milan Novković Milan Novković 23:20 13.10.2008

Re: ---

It’s hard to avoid the sense that Mr. Paulson’s initial response was distorted by ideology.

Nisam čitao članak, ne znam na koju ideologiju misli ali u nekoj semantičkoj piramidi ta bi ideologija trebala da se piše pod navodnicima :)

A da je "odfalširao" notu, najverovatnije namerno (zamisli da Pogorelić omaši celu notu !!!) nema dileme.
nsarski nsarski 23:32 13.10.2008

Re: ---

Nisam čitao članak

Evo ga ovde Gordon does good
Goran Vučković Goran Vučković 23:52 13.10.2008

Re: ---

Evo ga ovde Gordon does good

Što reče Sosa Lali u onom vicu (za "našu" ljubavnicu): "Nije što je naša, al' je najlepša."
Milan Novković Milan Novković 00:09 14.10.2008

Re: ---

Evo ga ovde Gordon does good

Pročitao, ja i dalje sumnjam u tu ideologiju :)
Pazi i ovo:
- Paulson je bio na čelu Goldmana
- Goldman je uglavnom izašao is subprime na vreme (o tome kako je City bila agresivna u subprime a ostala samo sa "mizernih" šačicu milijarni gubitaka treba posebno razmisliti)
- Goldman juri keš (ako nisi u dugovima keš ti treba za kupovinu)
- Buffet dolazi sa kešom (on skoro da ne spekuliše uopšte)
- U trenutku kad su tržišne cene nekih institucija niže od njihovih net assets Paulson izlazi sa rečenicom:
- Koja ni bebama u finansijama ne može da se omakne
- Za koju se zna da je kontraproduktivna i da će da obori cene

U stvari masters of the universe ovo sistematski rade vec deceniju dve - veštački obaraju cene, on low volume i na paniku, da bi kupovali u većim količinama (panika ne dozvoljava da sa povećanim količinama cena raste istom ili većom brzinom nego što je opadala pri malim količinama). Ili istim količinama, panika radi isti posao.
nsarski nsarski 00:18 14.10.2008

Re: ---

on low volume i na paniku, da bi kupovali u većim količinama (panika ne dozvoljava da sa povećanim količinama cena raste istom ili većom brzinom nego što je opadala pri malim količinama)

Hoces da kazes da je ovaj predlog King Henry-ja dobar dil?
On ce sada za dzabaka da dodje do ogromne kolicine kuca za koje se ne zna koliko kostaju ili vrede (a veruj mi, mnoge su zapustene vec par godina, provaljene, iz njih je izvuceno sve sto moze jak covek sa pajserom i papagaj kljestima da otkine), i za koju godinu ce te kuce da prodaje po skupoj ceni?
No way, my friend. Na svakog kupca kuce u USA danas ima 14 kuca na prodaju, ceo taj housing bubble je izazvao hiperprodukciju koju nemaju kome da prodaju. Otprilike kao kad bi fabrika u Kragujevcu imala na lageru 10 miliona "Fica" koje nameravaju skupo da udome kad se "steknu uslovi".
Paulson je izdanak izumrle vrste, ekonomskih dinosaurusa (vicious, to be sure) kojima je vreme proslo.
Milan Novković Milan Novković 09:59 14.10.2008

Re: ---

Ja sam više pričao o manipulaciji na berzi. Ali...
Na svakog kupca kuce u USA danas ima 14 kuca na prodaju, ceo taj housing bubble je izazvao hiperprodukciju koju nemaju kome da prodaju

...ovde imamo interesantan primer.
Ne može tako lako, kad su kuće u pitanju, da se ima 14 prodavaca na jednog kupca a da:
- Volume bude iole značajan '- ektrem: zamisli 10 miliona kupaca pa 140 miliona prodavaca. Velik procenat prodavaca moraju da budu i kupci (gde će da idu ako nisu) ili da prodaju holliday homes
- Da se posmatra dešavanje u iole razboritom vremenskom intervalu.

Zamisli da svi prodaju vikendice, i ovo je dobar granični primer koji ukazuje na značaj građevine u ekonomiji zemlje (bolji bi bio ovde ekonomista, ja sam amater).

Npr, ja kupim kuću od 100K u US, uzmem lovu od UK banke. Tih 100K je otišlo u US ekonomiju (plate raznim ljudima koji dalje troše na druge stvari) i ne može tako lako da se povuče nazad, ne može nikako. Ja kuću mogu odmah da srušim, da bnkrotiram (lova je od UK banke) to se US ekonomije ne tiče mnogo.

10 miliona kuća, 1,000 milijardi dolara, zdravih, koje su se ugradile u US ekonomiju. Ako je 20% novca došlo sa strane nekim indirektnim putevima (ja mogu samo da nagađam da je više od toga) pokuzuje nam zašto države ne trče da obuzdaju iracionalno tržište nekretninama. Kao što sam već rekao, nekom je iracionalno nekom racionalno, ti o super-simetrijama i zakonu inercije znaš mnogo više :)

Iznmeđu mene i US ekonomije ima gomila finansijskih mešetara, gramzivih ljudi, structured products, derivata. Na ovom dealu to US nešto posebno i ne intresuje, dobili su svojih 100K. Interesuje ih samo da i sutra, ma kako se stvari sad stavile pod kontrolu posle lekcija "naučenih" iz krize, neko drugi može da kompletira proces kupovine kuće, gde je što veći procenat novca došao sa strane, agde se po prirodi stvari ovih 100K ugrađuje u domaću ekonomiju.

Recimo, ko prati UK vesti ovih dana, videće da se tu Gordon Brown odaje pomalo - suviše često i blago nervozno priča o re-aktiviranju mortgage tržišta i to je jedan od uslova pod kojima UK ovde pomaže bankama.
rankot rankot 12:12 14.10.2008

Re: ---

gordanac
Milan Novković
Ovo je samo "potez" u poodmakloj igri :)

Nije, Milane.
Ovo je potpuno nova igra.

Просветлите нас неуке.
nsarski nsarski 12:56 14.10.2008

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Ne može tako lako, kad su kuće u pitanju, da se ima 14 prodavaca na jednog kupca

Pa, preciznije, na svakog potencijalnog kupca kuce na trzistu, postoji 14 puta vise kuca na prodaju. To je postignuto tako sto su, u trenutku rasta cena kuca i potraznje, besomucno gradili gde god su mogli. Tipicna situacija na Floridi - tamo su podignuta citava naselja koja nemaju vise kupaca. Istina, mnogi ljudi su kupovali po dve ili vise kuca sa namerom da ih odmah prodaju i zarade. Bila je u pitanju neka vrsta piramidalne seme sa stambenim objektima.
Takodje je problem sto kuce propadaju kada niko u njima ne stanuje, tako da trenutnom visku kuca neprestano pada vrednost i uopste nije poznato koliko sva ta imovina sada vredi. Paulson je izbacio cifru 7oo milijardi, ali sam kaze da je to uradio odokalno jer mu je "trebao neki zaista veliki broj".
marta l marta l 13:08 14.10.2008

Re: ---

Ja sam u počeku verovao u solidnu "igračku" komponentu, a ne samo stihijsku, uglavnom po prirodi ljubavi prema teorijama zavere :) i nekim tradign patterns.
Onda je vera prerasla u fundamentalizam.....

isto mislim. devedestih smo naucili da nema slucajnosti.

Tek, trenutno treba pazljivo pratiti dalekoistocne berze i banke. Kina je drugi igrac u ovoj svetskoj drustvenoj igri "ne ljuti se stediso". Ne zure, od pocetka ekonomskog uspona grade rezerve....nista nije bez pokrica, a sve je (ili bar najvazniji nivoi finansijskih strategija) pod kontrolom drzave. Mozda su Ameri slutili da u buducnosti ne mogu da se igraju sa kinezima ako i sami nemaju mehanizme upravljanja "slobodnim" trzistem......pa je morao da padne salto mortale, bolje odmah nego kasnije...
na to mi lici.
Kazezoze Kazezoze 13:23 14.10.2008

Re: ---

Просветлите нас неуке.

evo da ja pokusham da odgonetnem shta goca misli pod "potpuno nova igra"...
poshto su neke evropske zemlje odluchile da nacionalizuju neke svoje banke, odnosno vlade tih zemalja su postali vecinski vlasnici tih banaka, to odjednom menja pravila igre jer ce sad igru diktirati politichar, a ne privatno lice,a poznato nam je kako politichari vole da sede u bankarskoj fotelji
ili krace : "Amerika i Engleska bit ce zemlja proleterska" ))
rankot rankot 08:34 15.10.2008

Re: ---

Kazezoze
to odjednom menja pravila igre jer ce sad igru diktirati politichar, a ne privatno lice,a poznato nam je kako politichari vole da sede u bankarskoj fotelji
ili krace : "Amerika i Engleska bit ce zemlja proleterska" ))

Значи, Слобин рецепт?
mirelarado mirelarado 20:33 13.10.2008

zaigrala mečka...

Pomalo ostrašćen tekst, ali verujem da autor iznosi tačne činjenice. Zanima me šta znači današnji blagi oporavak svetskih berzi, a najviše me zanima gde je kraj krizi i kako će se sve ovo odraziti na Srbijicu...
nsarski nsarski 20:48 13.10.2008

Re: zaigrala mečka...

Pomalo ostrašćen tekst

Taks jeste ostrascen, ali cini mi se da iznosi misljenje velikog broja ljudi koji su jednostavno propali...
mirelarado mirelarado 21:16 13.10.2008

Re: zaigrala mečka...

Taks jeste ostrascen, ali cini mi se da iznosi misljenje velikog broja ljudi koji su jednostavno propali...


Potpuno tačno ... samo nije prijatno što se krizi ne sagledava kraj, a mi smo imali to jezivo iskustvo '93. pa se pitam ... a taman smo vratili novac u banke...
nsarski nsarski 21:18 13.10.2008

Re: zaigrala mečka...

a taman smo vratili novac u banke...

Moji dousnici mi kazu da ce Srbija i druge "male" zemlje biti uglavnom izolovane od ovog kraha. Bolje se brini za mene (ako si u Srbiji), nama se zlo pise...:)))
ivana23 ivana23 21:23 13.10.2008

Re: zaigrala mečka...

mirelarado mirelarado 21:36 13.10.2008

Re: zaigrala mečka...

Moji dousnici mi kazu


Iz usta Vaših doušnika u božije uši! :)))
mirelarado mirelarado 22:28 13.10.2008

Re: zaigrala mečka...

Bolje se brini za mene (ako si u Srbiji), nama se zlo pise


U Srbiji sam i držim palčeve i tebi i svim našim ljudima tamo da sve prođe što bezbolnije. Naći će već Veliki Meštri neki izlaz...
nsarski nsarski 22:33 13.10.2008

Re: zaigrala mečka...

Naći će već Veliki Meštri neki izlaz...

Hah, za mene je izlaz Srbija:)). Ozbiljno, ma kako to neverovatno zvucalo. Suvise sam sr**nja video u zivotu da bih legao na njihovu rudu i poverovao im.
Ja sam sasvim OK, nego mi je zao zbog mnogih koji su pukli. Dobri, posteni, radni ljudi, Amerikanci. Ne znaju sta ih je snaslo. A snaslo ih.
jeremija92 jeremija92 20:35 13.10.2008

Teme i talenti

Kriza će pomoći piscima da nađu nove teme, prave životne, i da se nadareni pisci dokažu, kao i 1929.g.
Amerikanci će bolje razumeti ostatak sveta.
U svakom zlu ima i ponešto dobro.
nsarski nsarski 20:38 13.10.2008

Re: Teme i talenti

Kriza će pomoći piscima da nađu nove teme, prave životne, i da se nadareni pisci dokažu, kao i 1929.g.
Amerikanci će bolje razumeti ostatak sveta.

Zanimljivo da je istu tezu proturao A. Isakovic u vreme onih katastrofalnih godina u bivsoj nam Yu.
jeremija92 jeremija92 21:06 13.10.2008

Re: Teme i talenti

Nadajmo se da se Amerika neće raspasti u plamenu i krvi, kao bivša nam domovina, pa čak i po cenu da američki pisci ostanu bez tema kakve su se, na svakom koraku, nudile našim piscima.

nsarski nsarski 21:19 13.10.2008

Re: Teme i talenti

Nadajmo se da se Amerika neće raspasti u plamenu i krvi,

Pa, i o tome su pisane lepe knjige...:)

Kako kaze Andric - oteto od zivota tvog i mog. U mom prevodu: ybsh zivot, knjizevne teme su bitne.
Predrag Brajovic Predrag Brajovic 09:09 14.10.2008

Re: Teme i talenti

nsarski
Kriza će pomoći piscima da nađu nove teme, prave životne, i da se nadareni pisci dokažu, kao i 1929.g.
Amerikanci će bolje razumeti ostatak sveta.

Zanimljivo da je istu tezu proturao A. Isakovic u vreme onih katastrofalnih godina u bivsoj nam Yu.


Ево шта је једном приликом писао Јосиф Бродски:
„Гнусна је неистина да страдање доприноси бољој уметности. Страдање заслепљује, оглувљује, уништава, и често убија. Осип Мандељштам био је велики песник и пре револуције. Као и Ана Ахматова, као и Марина Цветајева. Они би постали оно што су напокон постали и да се ниједан од историјских догађаја који су задесили Русију није одиграо: то стога што су били надарени. У суштини, таленту историја није потребна.”
Budimac Budimac 09:40 14.10.2008

Re: Teme i talenti

У суштини, таленту историја није потребна.

Nije teško složiti se sa tim.
Međutim, kako tumačiti, recimo, skoro potpuni nestanak sjajnih kinematografija, Češke, Poljske i Mađarske posle (pa i u toku) tranzicije? Kao da je odsustvo potrebe da se bude subverzivan otupelo stvaralačke oštrice.
Predrag Brajovic Predrag Brajovic 10:15 14.10.2008

Re: Teme i talenti

Посматрај овако:
Политика увек дође као некаква уметничка протеза, која је од користи најпре оним најмање талентованима.
Склони ту протезу, и тај "рајски врт" за "уметнике" преко ноћи постане новобеоградска ледина.

Чудо, неки и на тој ледини знају да направе изврсно дело.
aguero aguero 20:37 13.10.2008

DA NAS ISTAPIRAJU

SAD koriste pravi trenutak,pred izbore,da istapiraju ceo svet i da svoje ogromne troskove za krstaske ratove prevale na pleca cele svetske zajednice.Tako vec dugo rade i sa UN koje su pretvorile u svoje orudje,a redovno ne izmiruju svoje finansijske obaveze prema ovoj organizaciji.Velika Amerika sluzi se seljackim forama,i stalno im prolazi ta kaubojstina.No,koliko znam,druge ekonomski jake zemlje spremaju im odgovor koji ce ih zaista osamutiti.
ivana23 ivana23 20:38 13.10.2008

USA, Dirty Thirties


REUTERS/FDR Library/
Aleksandar Stosic Aleksandar Stosic 20:57 13.10.2008

Re: USA, Dirty Thirties

ivana23 ivana23 20:59 13.10.2008

Re: USA, Dirty Thirties


REUTERS/FDR Library/
jeremija92 jeremija92 21:33 13.10.2008

Re: USA, Dirty Thirties

ivana, jel ovo red kod Jezde il Dafine?

UK charities

Juce videh na vestima da je moja "kuca" Christie (nekada se zvala Hospital, a sad je "nadbolnicka institucija" izgubila potencijalno 7.5 miliona GBP u jednoj od islandskih banki. Isto se desilo mnogim dobrotvornim drustvima i fondovima.
Posto Christie uziva "povlasceni status " Foundation Trust-a, to znaci da za razliku od drugih NHS institucija sama raspolaze svojim finansijama i snosi odgovornost za to, frka je. Lepse je visiti oko vrata Golden Brownu u ovom trenutku. Ali, ovde sam videla sta ljudima znaci charity. Prosle nedelje je na lokalnom radiju bila dobrotvorna akcija da se skupi kinta za muzicku sobu u Kristiju. Of note, tamo soba sa klavirom i violinom vec postoji, ali sad im treba jedna za tinejdzere, sa modernijim instrumentima. U roku od 3 dana umesto 25 000 GBP skupljeno je 59 000 GBP. Sad ce da dobiju i studio za snimanje muzike.
njanja_de.manccini njanja_de.manccini 20:40 13.10.2008

argentina-usa

"U ovom trenutnom nasem rasulu koje su izazvali isti oni vampiri sto su vas kontinent doveli na ivicu zivota, matora
kucka je zakucala i na vrata USA."

tih godina kad se to sve deshavalo u argentini jedan moj profesor sa graduate school je govorio povodom toga: what goes around comes around. a mi svi u neverici da tako neshto mozhe da kazhe. chovek znao shta pricha.
nsarski nsarski 20:52 13.10.2008

Re: argentina-usa

what goes around comes around

Ili chicken came home to roost...
MightyNora MightyNora 20:41 13.10.2008

Pogledajte ovo...

Jedino je pitanje: koliko cemo jos krvariti, i koliko dugo ce to trajati?


solution

Zeitgeist addendum

Ko ga nije gledao, mislim na prvi deo (The Zeitgeist), treba...

A drugi, koji je izasao u flv formatu (uspesno se da prebaciti u avi), mora da ga gleda...

Dali su resenje na kraju krajeva

ovde mozete da nadjete drugi deo filma

Mighty
gorran2 gorran2 20:46 13.10.2008

trenutak istine

Situacija zorno pokazuje ko je pravi gazda sveta.
Krupni finansijski kapital je samo srce sistema. Kad svi dobijaju, on dobija najviše. Kad svi gube, on dobija još više.
Ceo svet je igra koja postoji samo zato da bi on uzimao "pikslu"
nsarski nsarski 21:01 13.10.2008

Re: trenutak istine

Situacija zorno pokazuje ko je pravi gazda sveta.

Ovo su dragoceni trenuci (priceless, rekli bi u Master Card-u). Samo u takvim situacijama vidis pravu prirodu sistema. U svim drugim mirnim vremenima, sve izgleda fino, lepo, spremljeno, podmazano i posteno.
nicolaus_liesinich nicolaus_liesinich 21:50 13.10.2008

Re: trenutak istine

Jeste .... ili vidis pravu sliku sistema tek kad se razbolis, dok si mlad, sve ti fino izgleda ... BTW, kad dolar potone, Dow i zlato ce se sresti negde izmedju 3000 i 5000 ... zato, kupujte zlato i umetnicka dela, a bogami i po koju farmu, ako je jeftina ...
Kazezoze Kazezoze 22:10 13.10.2008

Plachi za nas, Argentino

Amerika je na izdisaju. Potrebna joj je shok terapija.



Vatra se ne gasi novcem... papir gorrriiiiii.



Treba smisliti neshto manje zapaljivo... a prvo doneti zakon o zabrani kockanja.
Kockanje je gori porok od pushenja, a i shtetan je po zdravlje onih koji ne igraju.
Pa kad su mogli zabraniti pushenje, mogu i kockanje.
Treba ukinuti sve financijske rizike i nacionalizovati banku koja shtampa novac ( Federal Reserve).
Treba uvesti NEKREDITNI NOVAC koju je smislio nash smislov Stojan...
i treba zapamtiti lekciju inache...





nsarski nsarski 22:10 13.10.2008

Re: trenutak istine

a bogami i po koju farmu, ako je jeftina .

Evo, iz tvojih usta u Bosove usi:

On October 13, 2006, the Prensa Latina paper reported that George W. Bush had purchased 98, 842 acres on the Acuifero Guarani in northern Paraguay, between Bolivia and Brazil.
gordanac gordanac 22:16 13.10.2008

Re: Plachi za nas, Argentino

Treba smisliti neshto manje zapaljivo... a prvo doneti zakon o zabrani kockanja.

Pa ima USA taj zakon.
Nema taj zakon, čini mi se, baš puno veze sa proteklih 10 godina stvaranja krize kojoj prisustvujemo.
Ili je nesporazum?
Ti misliš na regulaciju finansijskog tržišta, a ne na kockarnice & kockanje kaotakve ? Ili - šta?
Treba ukinuti sve financijske rizike i nacionalizovati banku koja shtampa novac ( Federal Reserve).

:))))
Ih, Kazezoze, pa to smo videli kako izgleda - zove se "odsustvo ekonomskih sloboda" iliti "komandna ekonomija" (takvi tek ne umeju sa novcem!)
Kazezoze Kazezoze 22:16 13.10.2008

Re: trenutak istine

On October 13, 2006, the Prensa Latina paper reported that George W. Bush had purchased 98, 842 acres on the Acuifero Guarani in northern Paraguay, between Bolivia and Brazil.

bezhi, ukoliko ga neko bude trazhio za ratne zlochine... pacovi prvi napushtaju brod koji tone.
nicolaus_liesinich nicolaus_liesinich 22:21 13.10.2008

Re: trenutak istine

Naravno ... mislim, pazi lekcije naucene iz velike depresije: 1. budi stedljiv sto vise. 2. Pouzdaj se u sebe i u svoj rad, tj. bastu/farmu. Sloba se i odrzao onoliko dugo jer je broj gladnih ne-polutana bilo samo oko 10-15% (a kriticna masa je bila oko 25%), ostali su se snalazili kod rodjaka sa sela.
maksa83 maksa83 22:33 13.10.2008

Re: Plachi za nas, Argentino

Pa ima USA taj zakon.
Nema taj zakon, čini mi se, baš puno veze sa proteklih 10 godina stvaranja krize kojoj prisustvujemo.
Ili je nesporazum?


USA, kao i ova naša sirota zemlja (tebi valjda ne treba da objašnjavam ko propisuje prirodu i dinamiku donošenja zakona ovde? je l' tako? tako je. , menja zakone prema potrebama alavih glavonja (koji su zapravo vlasnici političara).

Evo malo o klizećim kriterijumima (kocka je - e ipak nije kocka) i deregulaciji koja se dešavala pre 1999. Krajem XIX veka trgovina fjučerima je bila ono što je bila oduvek tj. uključivala je razmenu dobara kao deo transakcije. Onda su se neki tipovi setili da zapravo ne moraju da vide ta dobra, nego samo strpaju u džep razliku između cene fjučera i cene dobra po isteku - tzv. cash settled futures. Podatke o cenama fjučera su uzimali sa prave berze - CME, pa se Chicago Mercantile Exchange pobunio u jednom trenutku pošto su im ovi em uzimali podatke a ne plaćali (danas berze veliki deo prihoda ostvaruju od prodaje podataka), em im odvlače volume, i uskrate im pristup cenama. Ovi njih pak tuže zbog monopolskog ponašanja, ali 1915 sud dosudi da je CME u pravu, i da su cash settled futures kao pojava - illegal gambling, i zabrani tu stvar. Prolazi vreme, i posle dovoljno pritisaka finansijskih glavonja (pošto tu može dobro da se zaradi) - 1982. se donosi akt koji poništava presudu o tome da je to kocka. Od tada špekulacija preuzima najveći deo obima trgovanja fjučerima. Sad, kako nešto što je bilo kocka odjednom prestaje to da bude? Lepo, kada Mandrak učini hipnotički pokret rukom.
nsarski nsarski 22:37 13.10.2008

Re: Plachi za nas, Argentino

Cekaj, ako se ne varam, nekada je u Srbiji najgore sto si mogao o nekome da kazes je da je "spekulant". (Prodaje maglu, drugim recima.)
gordanac gordanac 22:56 13.10.2008

Re: Plachi za nas, Argentino

...i deregulaciji koja se dešavala pre 1999....

E, to razumem.
I sve drugo što si pisao.
Nisam bila sigurna da li je Kazezoze na to mislio ili na "so called regular gambling" :)
nsarski nsarski 03:40 14.10.2008

Re: Plachi za nas, Argentino

Treba smisliti neshto manje zapaljivo... a prvo doneti zakon o zabrani kockanja.
Kockanje je gori porok od pushenja, a i shtetan je po zdravlje onih koji ne igraju.

Dragi Kaz, ako smo vec kod kockanja, nadam se da poznajes lik i delo Sheldona Adelsona.


Sheldon Adelson, man of the people!

Evo malo:

Last October, Sheldon Adelson, the gaming multibillionaire, accompanied a group of Republican donors to the White House to meet with George W. Bush.
Covek je vlasnih kockarnica po Las Vegasu, Makau, i slicno, multi multi bogat i, prema svim prakticnim kriterijumima, drma svetom. Menja predsednike po drzavama sveta i slicno. Evo ceo clanak o njemu, svih 13 stranica kompjuterskog teksta:
The Brass Ring A multibillionaire’s relentless quest for global influence.

Ko zeli da sazna vise o ovom dzentlmenu, ima njegova kraca biografija na Wikipediji.
Kazezoze Kazezoze 09:53 14.10.2008

Re: Plachi za nas, Argentino

E, to razumem.
I sve drugo što si pisao.
Nisam bila sigurna da li je Kazezoze na to mislio ili na "so called regular gambling" :)

Na to sam mislio... Treba pod O B A V E Z N O ukinuti kazino derivate, jer kako Bill Lindo reche:

"Today, the collapse of the derivatives market is crushing the international financial system, as the speculators fight to save the fictitious “profits” through the largest bail-out attempt in history.

According to the most recent data for June 30, 2008 released today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the three largest American bank holding companies, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Citicorp, had current outstanding derivatives contracts totaling $179.4 trillion dollars. The three banks combined have total assets of just under $5.6 trillion!

Now do you see why the bail-out is not working? And can not work — there isn’t enough money in the world to cover all these virtual bets, and the efforts by the central banks to print that money, is fuelling a hyperinflationary bomb which will wipe out not only the remnants of the global financial system, but also the governments, national economies and the means of existence for most of the world’s population. Hyperinflation will destroy the value of the US dollar itself, wiping out pensions, savings, bank accounts, stock portfolios, and all other monetary values, bankrupting households, businesses and governments, leaving all the nation-states destroyed, and, effectively, no longer nation-states.

It is essential that the bailout of the derivatives bubble be stopped immediately. All derivatives trades should be declared null and void, and wiped off the books of the speculators. Any financial instrument containing a derivative should also be declared null and void, and wiped off the books. This unregulated, insanely leveraged casino should be shut down, and all claims arising from derivatives bets nullified, as Iceland has done."
Milan Novković Milan Novković 07:52 15.10.2008

Re: Plachi za nas, Argentino

JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Citicorp, had current outstanding derivatives contracts totaling $179.4 trillion dollars. The three banks combined have total assets of just under $5.6 trillion!

Kaze, ova velika cifra je "notional" (nominal) amount. Nema istu prirodu kao mala i ne poredi se kao što na prvi pogled izgleda :)

Npr, ako nova kola koštaju 10,000 ja mogu nekom da nudim pravo (ne kola) da kupi kola po 10K u budućnosti za 1K. Trudim se ocenim koliko cena kola može da raste. U ovoj situaciji mislim da neće rasti više od 1K ni u najgorem slucaju, recimo da mislim da nece preko 10,500 realno. Ja gubim tek ako cena poraste preko 11K (pojednostavljeno, zanemarimo kamate i ostalo) pošto od kupca dobijam 10K, 1K sam već dobio što sam izdao derivat, i višak moram iz svog dćepa.

Ako je potencijalni kupac "ziheraš" pa misli da cena može da skoči i preko 13K ja mogu da izdam i takvu opciju. Pošto sam smatram da cena neće ići preko 11K ja mu ovu opciju prodam jeftino, recimo za 200.

Znači, derivata ima samo 200 dolara, nominal je 13,000, a potencijalni uticaj na svetske finansije samo nikakav sa ogromnom verovatnocom (ovo je cifra koja se poredi sa assets), osim ako se nisam ozbiljno zeznuo pa cena pređe 13K (200 dolara sam dobio u prošlosti).

I ja mogu da doprinesem svetskoj krizi na ovaj način - dajem ti pravo da kupiš stojadina za godinu dana za milijardu dolara (strike price). Za ovo pravo naplaćujem samo jedan dolar :) Ovo je karikirano, ali onaj ko izdaje derivate se trudi da ih izdaje "out-of-money". Što ima više potražnje to ću se ja truditi da mi je strike price što dalje od realne cene, da bih smanjio rizik.
Covek u belom Covek u belom 03:31 16.10.2008

Re: Plachi za nas, Argentino

Milan Novković
JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Citicorp, had current outstanding derivatives contracts totaling $179.4 trillion dollars. The three banks combined have total assets of just under $5.6 trillion!

Kaze, ova velika cifra je "notional" (nominal) amount. Nema istu prirodu kao mala i ne poredi se kao što na prvi pogled izgleda :)

Npr, ako nova kola koštaju 10,000 ja mogu nekom da nudim pravo (ne kola) da kupi kola po 10K u budućnosti za 1K. Trudim se ocenim koliko cena kola može da raste. U ovoj situaciji mislim da neće rasti više od 1K ni u najgorem slucaju, recimo da mislim da nece preko 10,500 realno. Ja gubim tek ako cena poraste preko 11K (pojednostavljeno, zanemarimo kamate i ostalo) pošto od kupca dobijam 10K, 1K sam već dobio što sam izdao derivat, i višak moram iz svog dćepa.

Ako je potencijalni kupac "ziheraš" pa misli da cena može da skoči i preko 13K ja mogu da izdam i takvu opciju. Pošto sam smatram da cena neće ići preko 11K ja mu ovu opciju prodam jeftino, recimo za 200.

Znači, derivata ima samo 200 dolara, nominal je 13,000, a potencijalni uticaj na svetske finansije samo nikakav sa ogromnom verovatnocom (ovo je cifra koja se poredi sa assets), osim ako se nisam ozbiljno zeznuo pa cena pređe 13K (200 dolara sam dobio u prošlosti).

I ja mogu da doprinesem svetskoj krizi na ovaj način - dajem ti pravo da kupiš stojadina za godinu dana za milijardu dolara (strike price). Za ovo pravo naplaćujem samo jedan dolar :) Ovo je karikirano, ali onaj ko izdaje derivate se trudi da ih izdaje "out-of-money". Što ima više potražnje to ću se ja truditi da mi je strike price što dalje od realne cene, da bih smanjio rizik.
Sve je to lepo, a sta cemo sa shorts-ima?
Milan Novković Milan Novković 12:20 16.10.2008

Re: Plachi za nas, Argentino

Sve je to lepo, a sta cemo sa shorts-ima?

Naked shorts su opasni, OTC shorts izuzetno opasni. Nema ih previše. Ovi ljudi nisu glupi, samo gramzivi,što uvek može da naduva i ono malo gluposti u nama :)

Tj, gde god da odem, bar ja, naiđem na neke najpametnije i najgluplje ljude na svetu. Tako i u investicionom bankarstvu. Ali, tamo ima stvarno vandredno pametnih ljudi.

Deo "pmati" je otišao u konstrukciju uvek novih finansijskih instrumentata, e.g. derivata, structured products etc.
Tako, neki instrumenti onoga što bi bio jako opasan OTC short, zbog nelikvidnosti, je transponovano u instrument koji je likvidnost preneo u domen keš likvidnosi.

Kad napišeš opciju, a dok je ne prodaš, ti u stvari nisi ni long ni short. Ti iz ničega rasežeš dva antipoda.
Kad prodaš opciju koju si sam izdao long si keš a short potencial obligation, što je isto keš samo forward, probabilistic, kvantni što bi rekao NŠarski :)

Znači shorts jesu problem, i potpuno se slažem s tobom i neka čitaoci zaključe šta to znači bit long 1000 evra u kešu i "vlasnik" 10% verovatnoće da se za 3 meseca izgubi 10,000 evra.

Exchange traded derivati su druga priča i tu regulativa radi solidan posao (deo rešenja za prevenciju sličnih kriza ovoj sada u budućnosti se vidi i u potencijalnom pomeranju nekih OTC finansijskih instrumenata na berzu).

Na berzi isto imaš nelikvidnost, ali imaš i forsirane margin calls po prirodi pravila korišćenja berze, plus garancije berze.

Tamo shorts umeju da budu ogromni, špekulatori se udružuju i zajednički napadaju valutu, kompaniju itd. Oni bukvalno kradu vrednost i destabilišu. Ali, retko ćeš naći primer da su zbog toga propali (mislim na vrhušku, naravno, ne može bilo kakva grupa da napadne britansku funtu, npr). Njima je jako opasno da napadaju bez razloga. Opasno je napadati nešto ako to nešto nema primetljivu slabost. Gramzivi ili ne to pametni ljudi uglavnom ne rade. Mi ih zovemo špekulanti ali oni nisu "čista" špekulacija. Prljavi deo njihovog rada jeste da kad su ukazali na slabost tu slabost nerealno naduvaju u očima manje sposobnih da bi previše oborili cenu pa pokrili shorts jeftino. Ali, ja mislim, da su oni na ovu vatru više dolili ulje nego što su je zapalili.

Teško je zauzeti čvrst stav o ovakvim ljudima - ako mi uspešno obrću penziju cool su mi, ako napadaju banku gde mi je ušteđevina nisu, a ako se potrefi oboje istovremeno onda sam samo još više zbunjen :)
Dušan Maljković Dušan Maljković 22:32 13.10.2008

o MMF-u

Neko duhovit, no ništa manje pronicljiv, jedared ustvrdi:

MMF se ponaša kao ludi doktror -- svima, bez obzira na bolest, prepisuje isti lek!

A znamo da su neke bolesti smrtonosne...
nsarski nsarski 22:35 13.10.2008

Re: o MMF-u

O, imenjace, hvala na poseti.
Ja se malo bavim imitacijom pa pustam tudje tekstove. Nadam se da nisi patentirao, pa da trazis royalty? :)))
Dušan Maljković Dušan Maljković 22:39 13.10.2008

Re: o MMF-u

Molim, molim.

I am already royalty -- so I just demand loyalty!
radojicic92 radojicic92 23:39 13.10.2008

...

eto
konacno se desava
jedan svet, jedna banka,

spremte se za zurku, ko prezivi pricace



Jelica Greganović Jelica Greganović 23:53 13.10.2008

Re: ...

ivana23 ivana23 00:04 14.10.2008

Re: ...

margos margos 01:06 14.10.2008

Re: ...

nsarski nsarski 03:22 14.10.2008

Re: ...

morgenstern morgenstern 00:38 14.10.2008

LaRouche

Bloger flipper58 je preneo zanimljiv interview kontroverznog LaRouchea i nekog ekvadorskog funkcionera.

Prenosim i ja ovde.

--

Lyndon LaRouche Interview with Patricio Pillajo and Pedro Paez, Ecuador Radio

- `REPERCUSSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES -

- TO THE WORLD FINANCIAL CRISIS' -

Lyndon LaRouche was interviewed on Quito, Ecuador Radio 530 AM on Oct. 6, along with Pedro Paez, Ecuador's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs. Their host was Patricio Pillajo. Mr. LaRouche appeared on the same program with Mr. Paez on Jan. 30, 2008. Translation from the Spanish was supplied by EIR's Dennis Small.

PATRICIO PILLAJO: Greetings to everybody. The subject we are going to be dealing with today is "Repercussions and Alternatives to the World Financial Crisis," with the American statesman and economist Lyndon LaRouche, who is in touch with us by phone from Washington; and in Quito, with economist Pedro Paez, the Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs of the government of Rafael Correa.

We are in contact with Washington, with Dennis Small, who will provide simultaneous translation. Can you hear me?

DENNIS SMALL: Yes, I hear you well. I hope you're getting our signal?

PILLAJO: Perfectly. Greetings, Mr. LaRouche.

The repercussions of the financial crash are global. We have been informed about the impact on Wall Street, but there have been bank bailouts in England, Ireland, Germany. France is proposing the creation of a fund of Eu300 billion for banks that are in trouble, and the United States recently approved an aid package of $700 billion.

We reiterate our welcome to our distinguished guests. We would like to begin by asking the economist Lyndon LaRouche, who has been a constant critic of this process of bailouts, and the role played by the financial system in the world economy: What will happen to the global economy when this $700 billion bailout of the financial system goes into effect?

LYNDON LAROUCHE: The result, if it's allowed to continue, will be insanity and a new Dark Age. This is the attempt of the thieves to rob the factory, and then, you don't get production.

PILLAJO: We'd like to reiterate our welcome today to economist Pedro Paez, and ask him: What actions can be expected from the Ecuadorian government in the face of this phenomenon, about which the President of the Republic himself has said, in reference to the financial crisis, that he doesn't care?

PEDRO PAEZ: Well, thank you very much for the opportunity to converse again with our friends in the United States. What we had talked about a few months back, is now hitting strongly. This crisis goes way beyond being a mere problem of corruption in some a few sectors, of a few imprudent investors. This is a crisis which demands profound changes. It's a crisis which is contaminating about 40% of the world's GNP, and it is not only in the United States; it's not only in the housing or construction sector of the United States. It has fundamentally contaminated capitalism's way of acting, of operating, internationally. And, undoubtedly, it requires a most proactive response by the countries of the Third World.

This time--various presidents have said this, along with Ecuador's President Correa--this time the North is not going to make us pay for the crisis. They did it in the crisis of the 60's and the '70s, by aggressively indebting us, and with the recycling of petrodollars, which was the antecedent of the foreign debt crisis, as a fundamental lever for the blackmail of the neoliberal policies in our countries, which have meant, through the imposition of the conditionalities of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the dismantling of the productive apparatus over recent decades in Latin America, above all in Ecuador. And also a process of unprecedented social polarization which has generated levels of frustration and despair whose most visible symptom is the expulsion of 3.5 million compatriots, who are now working as migrants in Spain, Italy, and the United States itself.

PILLAJO: So this does affect us, and we should be concerned?

PAEZ: I think that it does affect us. It affects us and it should concern us. And, in fact, we've been developing a series of measures to protect the Ecuadorian economy in the face of a situation as serious as what we are discussing here.

What President Correa said, and he was emphatic, is that we have taken all sorts of precautions, so that the country, the economy, can be calm. We have various security buffers so that today this won't mean perturbations of the macroeconomic stability of the country.

But without a doubt, we are defining the urgency of those proposals for a new regional financial architecture, and for a new domestic financial architecture, which are going to be the response in the face of a crisis which is as important as the one we are seeing.

PILLAJO: Mr. LaRouche, could you please be a little more specific about what the bank bailout is going to be mean for the global economy? What's going to happen to the dollar? What's going to happen with inflation? What's going to happen with the banking system and the productive apparatus?

LAROUCHE: What was done by Secretary Paulson and his accomplices, was to unleash a form of international hyperinflation, comparable to what happened in Germany in 1923. The current policies of the United States government are clinically insane from the standpoint of U.S. interests, as well as international interests.

However, it's extremely important to understand, that the direction of the causes for this crisis, are not coming originally from the United States: The mistake is made of assuming that the United States is the world imperial power. That is not true. Since 1968, there has been a change in the world policies. The actions taken under President Nixon: U.S. President Nixon passed the authority over the world economy from the leading role of the United States, to the United Kingdom's financial system.

This is typified by a single case, that of George Soros. George Soros is an agent of the British Foreign Office, and as you probably know, he controls much of life in the Caribbean area and south. Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system under Nixon, and then, the British and Saudi Arabian creation of the floating-exchange-rate market for petroleum, the U.S. dollar has been a plaything of the British Empire. And the role of George Soros in controlling the U.S. elections, as well as much of the international drug trade, controlling Russia, controlling large sections in Europe, and controlling other parts of Eurasia--this is characteristic of the present situation. The changes made in 1971 through 1973, that is, through the repeal of the Bretton Woods system and the establishment of the spot market in petroleum, has created an international monetary-financial system, which is now exploding out of self-destruction.

You can understand the problem best, by looking at what the solution is: As I have proposed, the United States must approach Russia, China, and India, for collaboration, and setting into motion a solution for this global problem. This is a return, in a sense, to the Franklin Roosevelt policy of a Bretton Woods system, which was destroyed between 1968 and 1973.

PILLAJO: Mr. LaRouche, is the role of the dollar-standard in the world economy in danger? You have said that we're at the edge of a process of disintegration never before seen. Is the role of the United States dollar itself in the world economy threatened?

LAROUCHE: Well, it is not the U.S. dollar anymore, but it is the dollar. It's the Anglo-American dollar, and it's controlled from London. That's the significance of this past measure taken recently in the United States, and dictated by London. President George W. Bush is a puppet of London. And you have a revolt in the United States, where probably only about 10% of the population actually would support the agreement, the legislation that was just enacted in the United States. You have a situation in the United States, which is comparable to the beginning of the French Revolution. It's like the King of France, who, at that time, paid no attention to the feelings of the people, or Lafayette, and thus destroyed France. You have a terrified membership of the Congress, which is submitting to orders from London!

PILLAJO: Okay. Minister Paez, do you agree with this evaluation? How do you see the future of the dollar, not only as the standard of the world economy, but, in the case of Ecuador [which is dollarized--ed.], and what would we be facing in those circumstances?

PAEZ: Look, what I'm saying here is that the North is trying get someone to pay the bill for this crisis. Latin America has said, this time, Latin America is not going to do it. One of the alternatives which we are building, is, in fact, the new regional financial architecture, which is going lay the basis for what we can be, as is being mentioned here: a multipolar international agreement, which will allow us to build a new international financial architecture, and a new world order, which would have much more solidarity and be much more sustainable.

I believe that the oligarchies of different nationalities who are profiting from the current situation, of this excluding capitalism, this speculative capitalism, this capitalism which has asphyxiated the productive apparatus, which was in fact its own raison d'être, it own greatest achievement in creating the golden years, especially after the Second World War. This speculative and rentier capitalism which lives off financing economies, has prevented the productive apparatus from actually fulfilling the needs of the world, which the scientific and technological revolution would permit. So, here we are, in the 21st Century, facing the danger of starvation, facing an energy crisis, and not only monetary-financial issues, threatening the very existence of our societies.

And to pose that the only profitable alternative for these great world oligarchies is to bet on war, to bet on plunder, to bet on robbery such as we are experiencing right now, this has to be replaced by a great alliance of peoples to rebuild the world order, to establish new rules of the game.

And what is being done modestly now from South America, with this new regional financial architecture, that is to say, the Bank of the South, as the heart of a network of development banks, which would allow us to return to the view that the productive apparatus, not only in terms of international investment which places us as suppliers of raw materials, but which begins to develop the internal markets, and places the satisfaction of the basic needs of the population of Latin America as the first priority.

And to have, along with this network of development banks, a network of central banks with a heart, with a Southern Monetary Fund, as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund, and to break with this neoliberal view, and which makes the subject of development and the reduction of structural asymmetries a central element in the construction of macroeconomic sovereignty on a continental level.

And linked to this, the possibility of having a different type of approach based on a system of settlement of accounts, which would allow us to better lubricate trade and financial transactions among the countries of Latin America, and which would allow us to protect the region, in the face of this international turbulence. This is going to establish the possibilities of a new type of international financial architecture, a network of networks, which would put us in a position of equality in this multipolar world, in order to reestablish the functioning of a monetary system which would be at the service of production, both here in Latin America, and also in the North.

And I see a problem of the United States, which has led it to losing its hegemony, which is that it has asphyxiated the productive apparatus, in order to serve the interests of multinational financial capital.

The alternative which is now being posed, is to produce, produce, produce.

From that standpoint, I think that a new pact can be established, a new pact of coexistence among peoples, a new relationship between the North and the South which would pose the perspective of peace and solidarity.

PILLAJO: Leaving aside the issue of whether the great powers reach an agreement or not, can Latin America contribute to this vision?

PAEZ: We cannot influence, we cannot control the agenda of the great powers. But we can, based on our own decisions, based on what we can achieve relying on our own strength, transform the correlation of forces, and establish a new path, a new approach, in which we believe there will be much better circumstances for the great powers in the North to come to their senses and be reasonable, and realize that the best alternative is this force for peace.

PILLAJO: Mr. LaRouche, what will happen if there is not an international agreement, which you have so widely promoted, to reorganize the world economy? Is there a "Plan B" to the decision already made by the United States government to implement the multibillion-dollar bailout package?

LAROUCHE: You don't talk about Plan B, because there is no Plan B.

What you have is a different situation: You underestimate the danger. You have to look at this from the top down, from the world as a whole, top down, not from nations up. There is no possibility that South America could independently survive under the conditions that are coming down now. This is not a problem of South America: It's a problem that {hit} South America.

Unless we can get the kind of four-power agreement that I have prescribed, and which Russians have now indicated they're willing to go along with, we're on the edge of a situation, in which the entire population of the planet will collapse, from over 6.5 billion people to less than 2 billion, in a fairly short time! Unless we put the world system into bankruptcy reorganization, in every part, and take the same approach that Franklin Roosevelt took in the United States in 1932-33, and unless we assemble enough power to crush the British Empire, which has been controlling the world for the past decades, there's no chance for any part of civilization today.

Look at the solution: The Russian government has recognized its problem, and recognized the problems of other nations, and is willing to play a key part, to bring the United States, Russia, China, India, and other countries into a coalition to create a new international financial architecture immediately. Such an agreement is indispensable for providing the kinds of conditions needed to deal with the problems in each part of the world.

As you know, the problem is not only a financial problem, it's a breakdown of the productive powers of labor in most countries of the world. Without high-technology infrastructure development on a massive scale, we can not solve the problems of this planet. We need to assemble this, and assemble nations together to each take their part of the world. For example, you have a special problem in the Americas: Large-scale capital improvements in technology are required to deal with these problems. So we have to create a new system of organization, as in South America, with North America, and in Africa, and so forth. We need to create these systems under an umbrella of international power to protect these systems.

The food crisis of the world today, alone, is awesome! We're on the edge of mass death, merely because of hunger. The lack of infrastructure for development is enormous! The lack of access to capital markets is a real crisis. So, you need to have a rallying point of the world's effort to save itself from this crisis.

PILLAJO: The president of the European Union, [French President] Nicolas Sarkozy, issued a call last week for a reorganization of the financial system. What is your view of President Sarkozy's statement? Is there a willingness in Europe as well, to take that great step?

LAROUCHE: Well, Sarkozy is doing a useful job. But he's not the source of the job. As the Russians have understood, and others have understood: We have to turn the United States situation around, because you've got to control the United States. And you have to use the fact that the United States government, the present administration is totally self-disintegrated in the eyes of its own citizens. If you can not bring Russia, China, India, and the United States [together], at the time that George Bush and his administration are already discredited, then you can not save the system. And you have, from last Sunday [Oct. 5], from the Russian leading TV, with about 70 million viewers, the Russian government's representatives presented an acceptance of my proposal for a new initiative. Certain forces in Europe, including Sarkozy, people in Italy, and so forth, are moving in the direction of adapting to that. The conception of a New Bretton Woods system of the type I'm talking about, is the solution.

PILLAJO: Mr. LaRouche, economist Paez would like to add something.

PAEZ: It's very important to recognize that we're at a civilizational crossroads that can move very rapidly towards much worse conditions, that could plunge the world into a truly calamitous situation from which we would not be able to emerge in the short term, and that it could take a long time to implement an alternative. I believe it's fundamental to have a quick response, in light of the gravity of the crisis.

I also agree, that reference points, such as Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Bretton Woods, are very important in this conjuncture, obviously changing things based on the needs and technological capabilities of the 21st Century. These details are very important.

It's fundamental that, in the recomposition of this world process, the recomposition of the world order, that every one of the countries, every one of the regions, be empowered to be able to stop the toxic unipolarity which has been leading world affairs into this dead end.

What I cannot agree with, is that the South should sit around and do nothing, or light candles to the Virgin, to just wait until the great world powers are enlightened and can come to an agreement. We believe that there has to be proactive, propositional action by the South. As for South America, this issue is fundamental in the construction of a space of supranational monetary-financial sovereignty that would allow us to join the international discussions based on a different correlation of forces. The arrogance and the arbitrary relations with which the North has dealt with the South, cannot continue to exist, based on legitimizing and consummating a situation which is leading humanity to a very painful situation, to an absolutely calamitous dynamic.

The alternative, without doubt, is along the lines of what is being posed here, what the economist LaRouche and Dennis Small have been presenting: the need to pose the idea of the foundation of a new international monetary and financial order, adopting many of the principles of Bretton Woods, adopting many of the alternatives which Keynes proposed at the time, but incorporating as well, a new organization of international trade. If we have an ordering of international trade which exacerbates the asymmetry and world imbalance, with structural deficits for certain countries, which is a result of neoliberalism, of deregulated savage capitalism, then it's obvious that those asymmetries will also be confirmed and exacerbated by the financing of those gaps, which come through foreign debt and through foreign direct investment, which is increasingly more onerous for our economies.

It's essential that this refounding of the international financial order should have as a counterpart, a refounding of the international division of labor, under conditions that are much more equitable, and under conditions of fair trade, which allow us to relaunch production on a much more inclusive and sustainable basis. That this be the material basis of a world political and social order which places its bet on peace and solidarity.

PILLAJO: What is required for that?

PAEZ: I believe it is essential to move forward on the transformation of the world institutions. We need a new international monetary and financial order with, for example, what the Bank of the South has, a payments system, and the Southern Monetary Fund contributing to the autonomy, to vaccinating ourselves against the kinds of measures which can be taken by this Anglo-Saxon dollar, which Mr. LaRouche has mentioned. And which allows us to defend the space we have for production in the continent.

It's fundamental to prevent the logic, the dynamic of profit-mongering and speculation to contaminate the solution.

A large part of the problem of this $700 billion, which is the package which the United States is trying out, and which is going to be recycled in Europe and Japan, is that there is nothing to stop this going to reinforce the speculative tendency. The real alternative is to strengthen the productive apparatus in the North and the South, on a sustainable basis.

We have to change the World Trade Organization, we have to change international financing relations; we have to re-pose the issue of the debt. The foreign debt is a drug for the Third World, and we have to re-pose the international order, to have a "Jubilee" [debt forgiveness--ed.] as was proposed a long time ago, as the path to follow.

PILLAJO: Mr. LaRouche, your comments, please?

LAROUCHE: Well, the point is, left out of the discussion so far, is the most crucial issue of all: First of all, you can not negotiate in a market that doesn't exist. If we do not get the kind of reform that I've prescribed now--and I'm talking in the immediate period head--there will be no significant cooperation among nations of any part of the world. Also, we have not discussed...

PAEZ: My dear Mr. LaRouche, my dear Dennis: We agree completely. We would be willing to support that kind of reform. In fact, we would applaud the fact of the United States, Russia, China, and India--the great world actors--converging on some type of agreement of this sort. But, a small country like Ecuador can not decide those kinds of things. What we can do is change the world correlation of forces from our small space that we have on the world stage. We are a totally marginal country; probably many Americans don't even know where Ecuador is. What we can do...

LAROUCHE: I know...

PAEZ: What we can do, is, we are not going to sit around and do nothing. We have decided to be subjects of history, and what we are doing, purposefully, setting the course as far as we can, with significant advances in matters having to do with the agenda of the new regional financial architecture, changing the correlation of forces, and stopping unipolarity from proceeding with impunity in the world. It's essential that all forces rise up with a call to reason, and to fight for peace and solidarity.

PILLAJO: Mr. LaRouche?

LAROUCHE: I say, you need advocates. I'm your advocate. Other people could be your advocate. You need protection for your rights. The Bank of the South, for example, is a very interesting idea, to assist in that process. But you also need the credit for a large-scale infusion of higher technologies, which are needed to raise the productive powers of labor, physically, in these countries. You have to examine more carefully exactly how your country and other countries were raped, during the 1970s and 1980s. I was involved in this problem. I fought it then, it exists still today! That is the problem we have to beat. You must be given the right to have access to credit, on reasonable terms, and long-term assistance, especially in the infrastructure development which is necessary for the transformation of your country, and complete access to modern technology on reasonable terms.

PAEZ: I agree completely, but those are rights which we have to win. They will not come to us as generous gifts from the same sectors which have been profiting from the misery of the rest of the world. These are conquests which the Third World, which the South, have to achieve. And we have to do it, not based on autarchy, by any means, but in the spirit of what you are talking about, a new type of North-South cooperation, in which we are able to construct a world, a global space of universal citizenship.

LAROUCHE: First of all, you have to have a revolution in the North. We must have a Eurasian revolution as well. We must have a shift of power, as the kind of revolution that Franklin Roosevelt made in 1932-33. He fought the same British imperial interests that we're fighting today. He continued the fight until he was betrayed by his successor, Truman. Truman supported Britain in reinstituting colonialism. We're on the verge, where we can seize power again, for the kind of thing that Roosevelt represented.

We have to make a revolution: a revolution of the nations who have been misled or abused, who have power. And that's why I'm in trouble, because I make that threat. For me, it's the only solution.

PILLAJO: Mr. LaRouche, many people mistrust the plan that you propose, because they talk about the cost, the price that would have to be paid for a bankruptcy reorganization of the financial sector, and also for the great world accord of which you speak. What is the price of the plan that you're proposing, Mr. LaRouche?"

LAROUCHE: Well, what we're doing, is we're going back to the United States system, which the Russians will join, and others will happily join. We're going back to revolutionize, to get rid of the corruption that came in after the death of Franklin Roosevelt.

And, I'm not impressed by money, at all. Money's a piece of paper! Today, with electronics, it's not even paper anymore. We're going to have to put the world into bankruptcy, and simply cancel most of what is called debt today. We're going to have to create a credit system, rather than continuing the old monetary system, creating international credit, which individual countries can turn into currency and so forth. And we have to have a set of priorities on development goals, which are largely social and physical economic goals.

In order for the countries which are weaker and smaller to do their own development, we must create a protective screen of great power, around that principle, that we're not going to allow this insanity to continue anymore. And when you look at the possibility--

PILLAJO: Minister Paez has another question.

PAEZ: I'm very glad to hear this. Because in fact, the design of the new regional financial architecture which was approved by the ministers of Latin America on May 3, 2007, points in that direction, with that spirit, of a new international organization of credit with countries that are free of debt, and with a more just trade.

PILLAJO: Excuse me, Minister Paez, are these medium term or long term plans? Because the crisis is now. That is, the basis of the financial market is disappearing.

PAEZ: Well, with the matter of UNASUR [Union of Nations of the South] and the signing of the Bank of the South at the end of 2007, yes. Recall, that in the case of Bretton Woods, the Bretton Woods design was ready at the beginning of 1944, but the World Bank and the IMF began operation only in 1949. So we're in the same type of situation. So we're moving at a much more rapid pace, and we believe, we hope, that the gravity of the crisis will accelerate concretizing this de facto.

PILLAJO: Mr. LaRouche?

LAROUCHE: I would say, that you have to realize that you're also on the edge of global thermonuclear war. The crowd in London--and don't say "United States"; yes, there are forces in the United States, but the crowd is centered in London: The greatest strategic error you could make is to think that the United States is the center of the problem. It is not. It is London. The United States, today, is a puppet of London, from the top down, and has been since 1973, since the establishment of the floating oil exchange.

What you have, is, you have China, India, Russia, the United States, as nations, which have the interest in defending themselves. About 90% of the Americans hate this bill that was just adopted in the United States, for example, which was adopted from London! This--you have to understand, that that crazy piece of legislation just adopted in the United States, came from London, not from United States!

And thus, we need great power, which changes the world policy back in the direction of what Franklin Roosevelt represented, while he was alive, to guarantee, to the various parts of the world, the freedom and right to follow their own course. To eradicate all traces of imperialism from this planet.

Leading people in these countries, as the Russian leadership has expressed it, yesterday, or two days ago, is presently in agreement with that perspective. Today, all of Western Europe is in panic. The national monetary-financial systems of these countries of Western Europe are all collapsing, just as the United States. At this rate, the international impact will be a shutdown of the economy, of every economy of the world. The world is at a point of decision: Either it makes this choice that I've indicated, or the world is going to Hell for a while.

I know the ambitions in South America. They've had my sympathy for a long time. But these nations need the power, to be able to do what they wish to do.

PILLAJO: Minister Paez, you recently discussed these matters in a meeting with the President of the country. What conclusions did you reach? What actions are you going to take in this complex situation where, apparently, a change lies in the decision of the great powers?

PAEZ: The alternative is, on the one hand, to think globally and act locally. But also the urgency, the gravity of the crisis demands that we act globally. And it's necessary to be able to influence this from where we can, with the modest possibilities that come from being a small country on the world scene. To make these kinds of proposals, on which I find many points of agreement with what we hare hearing from Mr. LaRouche, as well as other progressive forces around the world.

Now we have to open our minds to generate a broad front, to generate a summation of forces that are able to destroy those who augur disaster, those who augur violence and a scenario of greater confrontation. Mr. LaRouche has already even mentioned the possibility of a nuclear war. I would not rule out that barbarism might rule the world, because there are those increasingly anti-democratic oligarchical groups, which are increasingly involved in sinister and corrupt circumstances.

I think this should be the Springtime of the peoples of the world. We have to have great joy and hope for the future before us, based on the possibilities of communication, of understanding among the peoples, in order to be able to act jointly. Here in Ecuador, we're doing everything we can in terms of banking regulation...

PILLAJO: The new Constitution?

PAEZ: Yes, the new Constitution is an advance. In the first place, because it is an affirmation, a demonstration that here the people in Ecuador are saying, "We are going to fight for happiness." We have every right, taking up some of the historically most important elements of the American Revolution: the right to the pursuit of happiness. That is what is being shown in the matter of our new Constitution. This, without question, is being made concrete, is materializing in a series of changes in economic policy, in the economic structure of the country, in the change in the method of accumulation, which point to the satisfaction of the basic needs of the population. And they point towards a new type of international organization of the economy and of society.

I think what is being done here with a modest effort is fundamental. For example, the idea of the network which will allow the cooperatives and the communal banks to cooperate in the farthest reaches of the country. This is totally compatible with these decisions in the centers of decision making, with this hopeful view of a new future for all humanity. We have to work in the parishes, based on what we do daily; the most humble people have to recognize that they are subjects of history. We have to, of course, think and be provoked by the fact that the great powers, those that have the power to decide, that they return to their senses. But we can not set aside our tasks and our responsibilities, here and now.

Here in Ecuador, we're working on a new domestic financial architecture, on economic policies of a new type, on recovering a series of tools of trade policy, on recovering a series of tools that have to do with international negotiations, with the management of society towards a new economic model which will relaunch motion in the direction of greater influence and more sustainability.

We believe that with this process of bringing forces together internationally--all progressive forces--we will be able to pose a different future, in which we bet on peace, bet on solidarity in taking up the possibility of production to satisfy basic needs worldwide. The world food crisis, the world energy crisis, do have an alternative to what is being presented by this oligarchical gang, who are betting on war, on ending justice on an absolutely terrible situation.

PILLAJO: Do you think that the government as such can collaborate with political positions of sectors such as those led by Lyndon LaRouche in the United States?

PAEZ: Look, I think that where there is convergence, it's not even necessary to talk. The convergence of the sensible, progressive, and humanist sectors internationally, occurs precisely in the real of various schools of thought. What Mr. LaRouche is saying right now is something that has had a number of people, even before other people knew of the proposals of Mr. LaRouche, a number of people who are working in the same direction.

And this is a demonstration of the fact that we can move forward with the hope that people will return to their senses in the world: Because there are many people working from different standpoints: from the standpoint of the economy, from the standpoint of ecology, of fair trade, of freedom from the drug of foreign debt, from the standpoint of a popular economy with solidarity, from the standpoint of the possibility of constructing a different kind of society, of political structures around the world. Not only here in Ecuador, there are people who are working and moving forward.

I think we should definitely not understate the gravity of the situation: It is fundamental to realize the seriousness of the situation, and the urgency of having a quick response, an immediate response by the great powers. It is necessary to stop those war-mongering forces that have taken control of the apparatus which controls the fate of the world.

I believe, I salute the efforts being carried by people like the economist LaRouche and Dennis Small there in the United States. And I hope, I am sure that there are progressive forces also in Russia, China, Europe, and other parts of the world. It is necessary to promote a process of convergence, a process of agreement, which will close the door on war-mongering positions, on those who have entrenched themselves in financial speculation, in looting wars, in the control of non-renewable natural resources, in order to define a logic of capitalism in extinction, of discriminatory capitalism, of looting capitalism.

PILLAJO: Our time is running out. We would like to hear a final comment, a message perhaps, from the economist Lyndon LaRouche.

LAROUCHE: Well, as I say: We have a crashing international monetary-financial system, which will not continue to exist in its present form much longer. It is impossible to estimate dates of events, because human will does change the course of events. It is only possible to estimate the various potentials of the situation. And sometimes, the commander holds his forces in a fixed position, to wait to see what the enemy does, and then, to exploit the flanks which the enemy creates for himself.

We're in such a situation. I am proceeding aggressively internationally. There are forces moving as a result. I'm just waiting for the effect of the next mistake of the enemy to give us a new advantage. And I know that in Ecuador, and in other, neighboring countries of Ecuador, this is also understood. So, if we are wise and courageous at the same time, I think we can win. I can't guarantee it, but I think we can win. So let us proceed to win!

PILLAJO: Very good. Our thanks to the American economist and statesman Lyndon LaRouche for his presence in this informational exchange. To Mr. LaRouche and Dennis Small, thank you both very much for your presence. And also to Minister Paez for being on this news show.

PAEZ: Thank you very much: And I also have an equally hopeful message of being on constant alert. This is the moment for all voices, in which organization, conscience, and empowerment of all territories, communities, will show the way to what can be a new kind of more human civilization, with more solidarity, with a strong force for peace.

PILLAJO: Dear friends, thank you for following this interview to its conclusion.

--

Link na originalni izvor, web-sajt LaRouchove organizacije.
nsarski nsarski 00:53 14.10.2008

Re: LaRouche

It is necessary to stop those war-mongering forces that have taken control of the apparatus which controls the fate of the world.

Mislim da su ovi ljudi uvideli da economy-mongering moze da bude podjednako destruktivno (primer je Argentina) kao i war-mongering. Ja ne mislim, odmah da kazem, da je totalna destrukcija sistema dobra bilo kome. Ali, drugo vreme je doslo.
Nekada je bilo moguce da neki kilavi Lord iz Engleske, koji nikad nije izasao iz svog salona, poseduje pola Afrike sa sve ljudima, zivotinjama, dijamantima i plemenitim drvetom. I to je vreme proslo.
I vreme ratova vise nije ono sto je nekad bilo - povesti rat i okupirati koga hoces, sada je veoma tesko (barem nekima). Da li bi mogao neko da zamisli da, recimo, danas Poljska okupira Ukrajinu (kojom su nekad vladali)? I to je vreme,nadam se, proslo.
Vreme diktature ekonomije je, cini mi se, sada na izdisaju.
Ekonomija je neophodno potrebna (kao i politika, kao i sve drugo), ali ne sa ovim faraonima koji su ekonomski avion planete saterali u zemlju. Primerice radi, neki od tih CEO tipova su za godina dana - evo prosle godine - bili u stanju da zarade koliko svi Nobelovci u istoriji civilizacije za poslednjih 100 godina. To jednostavno nije odrzivo.
marco_de.manccini marco_de.manccini 05:22 14.10.2008

mozhda i nema veze sa temom

u vreme najvece krize u argentini, smenilo se nekoliko predsednika na chelu drzhave neverovatnom brzinom.

iz tog doba osta

"u americi svako mozhe da postane predsednik. u argentini svako to i postane"
nsarski nsarski 05:27 14.10.2008

Re: mozhda i nema veze sa temom

u vreme najvece krize u argentini, smenilo se nekoliko predsednika na chelu drzhave neverovatnom brzinom.

Da, u periodu od nekoliko meseci, promenili su pet vlada.
marta l marta l 13:15 14.10.2008

Re: mozhda i nema veze sa temom

off topic
na jednoj konferenciji u US u jeku haosa u Argentini pitaju Argentinku sazaljivo "kako je tamo ...."
a ona odbrusi "sve OK, mi cemo uvek imati goveda i pasnjake...."
Unfuckable Unfuckable 05:43 14.10.2008

ne znam da li sam

više uživao u "e sad sam stvarno besan" tonu i primereno praskavom rečniku kojim je napisan / reprodukovan sam blog ili u sjajnim komentarima blogera ispod.
Bez želje da se pravim pametan kada nisam, mene je uvek oko tih berzi fasciniralo uglavnom to kako se "polupaju" za minut.....dete socijalizma, jebiga : naučio na sporo ali bolno & krvavo - samo da ponovim ono što napisah i kod višnje na info koji je postavila gordanac :

Pariz, Vašington -- Vlade država Evropske unije najavile su da će obezbediti oko 2.000 milijardi dolara za garancije bankarskih kredita i druge hitne potrebe. "
Sa već izglasanih 700 (+150) milijardi dolara od USA to je blizu 3000 milijardi dolara....
Nisam sigurna da ljudi razumeju KOLIKO je to PRAVIH NOVACA (cca to je ČETIRI Holandije, ukupno, sve, a Holandija je 17 ekonomija sveta)


odakle Njima toliki novci ?
je l' sav taj novac nji'ov?
nsarski nsarski 05:50 14.10.2008

Re: ne znam da li sam

odakle Njima toliki novci ?
je l' sav taj novac nji'ov?

Njihov sigurno nije. Oni svoju lovu drza na sigurnom, nisu ludi da rizikuju. Kockaju se tudjim bogatstvom.
vladimir petrovic vladimir petrovic 09:33 14.10.2008

Nije vazno sta se pise, nego gde se pise

Procitao sam tvoj post, Nsarski, ali nemam vremena da citam sve komentare pa ne znam da li je vec dat odgovor na ono sto mene zanima - gde je objavljen ovaj dopis?
Nsarski
Ovo sto dole sledi je dopis jednog Amerikanca iz Buenos Airesa. On je novinar, i zivi u Kostariki.

Da se malo napravim Englez, reci cu da ja redovno pratim elektronska izdanja NYT i WP i nisam video tamo takve dopise... a znam da imaju dopisnike i iz Kostarike, he, he, he...
Kao sto u naslovu rekoh, jedna je stvar STA SE KAZE, a druga je stvar GDE SE TO OBJAVI.
Koliko znam, Amerikanci, koji zdusno zagovaraju nezavisnost medija, imaju prilicno restriktivan prilaz kada su u pitanju kriticki stavovi prema osnovnim americkim stremljenjima.
Ti si "on the spot", mozda imas bolji uvid...
ivana23 ivana23 10:26 14.10.2008

Re: Nije vazno sta se pise, nego gde se pise

vladimir petrovic
Procitao sam tvoj post, Nsarski, ali nemam vremena da citam sve komentare pa ne znam da li je vec dat odgovor na ono sto mene zanima - gde je objavljen ovaj dopis?
NsarskiOvo sto dole sledi je dopis jednog Amerikanca iz Buenos Airesa. On je novinar, i zivi u Kostariki.
Da se malo napravim Englez, reci cu da ja redovno pratim elektronska izdanja NYT i WP i nisam video tamo takve dopise... a znam da imaju dopisnike i iz Kostarike, he, he, he... Kao sto u naslovu rekoh, jedna je stvar STA SE KAZE, a druga je stvar GDE SE TO OBJAVI.Koliko znam, Amerikanci, koji zdusno zagovaraju nezavisnost medija, imaju prilicno restriktivan prilaz kada su u pitanju kriticki stavovi prema osnovnim americkim stremljenjima. Ti si "on the spot", mozda imas bolji uvid...


You Can Cry for Us, Argentina
by Mark Drolette / October 11th, 2008
jinks jinks 11:37 14.10.2008

Valjda ste u pravu sto

se tice naslova bloga, da se drugim zemljama nece ponoviti neke od epizoda koje su se desile u Argentini. Naime, ona je u nekim periodima istorije - za vreme svetskih ratova, kada je bila jedan od glavnih liferanata mesa na svetskom trzistu - postala ekonomski dosta jaka, pogotovo u poredjenju sa drugim zemljama iz okruzenja.

A posle im se desio Peron, i njegovi planovi za industrijalizaciju koja nije nikakve veze imala sa stvarnom prirodom ekonomije Argentine. Sto je izgleda najgore, na kraju je vise otislo na garderobu Peronove porodice, vise cak i od onoga sto je ulozeno u izgleda u znacajnoj meri neuspelu industrijalizaciju.

Ustvari izgleda da je kombinacija odgovarajucih petoljetnih planova koje su im predlagali krupni investitori i paketa pratecih ekstra kredita dovela do toga da se sve ono bogatstvo koje su od nekih zemalja dobili u zamenu za poljoprivredne proizvode, tim istim zemljama kasnije vrati sa kamatom.

A mozda je citava ta prica neki patentirani investicioni paket velikih banaka, posto su se izgleda slicne price desavale i u drugim zemljama (po jednoj prici, naprimer boljsevicka revolucija u Rusiji bila je jedan od takvih specijalnih investicionih paketa, koje su podrzavale mnoge poznate prekoatlanske banke, posebno u prvim godinama revolucije).
Brooklyn Brooklyn 12:10 14.10.2008

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zanimljivo kako je svaki pesnik, filozof i intelektualac po vlastitom ubedjenju ujedno i strucnjak za ekonomiju i sve zna sta bi trebalo, i koji bez ikakve odgovornosti preporucuju politike koje bi unazadile svet i najvise kostale najsiromasnije. kreteni.
radojicic92 radojicic92 12:19 14.10.2008

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Brooklyn
zanimljivo kako je svaki pesnik, filozof i intelektualac po vlastitom ubedjenju ujedno i strucnjak za ekonomiju i sve zna sta bi trebalo, i koji bez ikakve odgovornosti preporucuju politike koje bi unazadile svet i najvise kostale najsiromasnije. kreteni.


isto tako je zanimljivo koliko strucnjaci za ekonomiju sve znaju sta bi trebalo i sa punom odgovornoscu unapredjuju svet i najvise pomazu siromasnima, majstori
nsarski nsarski 12:27 14.10.2008

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Brooklyn
zanimljivo kako je svaki pesnik, filozof i intelektualac po vlastitom ubedjenju ujedno i strucnjak za ekonomiju i sve zna sta bi trebalo, i koji bez ikakve odgovornosti preporucuju politike koje bi unazadile svet i najvise kostale najsiromasnije. kreteni.

Psihologiju, ekonomiju i politiku izgleda svi znaju, ili se bar usudjuju da o njima slobodno pisu, bez obzira na formalno obrazovanje.
Nego, Brook, zanima me sta ti mislis o poslednjim poduhvatima vlasti. Znas, siguran sam, da je Krugman pisao protiv ovih intervencija - tacnije protiv intervencije u ovakvom obliku.
jinks jinks 12:35 14.10.2008

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poznati cuburski pesnik rekao je nesto otprilike ovako "kad god cujem da se neki covek predstavlja kao zastitnik siromasnih, ja se uhvatim za najblizu bukvu"
nsarski nsarski 12:41 14.10.2008

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isto tako je zanimljivo koliko strucnjaci za ekonomiju sve znaju sta bi trebalo i sa punom odgovornoscu unapredjuju svet i najvise pomazu siromasnima, majstori

Pa, kad ekonomija postane instrument politicke dominacije (kao prema Kubi, na primer), onda je to podjednako apsurdno kao kad rat postane instrument sprovodjenja demokratije (prema Iraku, na primer). Kolateralna steta je ogromna a ucinak nikakav.
radojicic92 radojicic92 12:44 14.10.2008

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jinks
poznati cuburski pesnik rekao je nesto otprilike ovako "kad god cujem da se neki covek predstavlja kao zastitnik siromasnih, ja se uhvatim za najblizu bukvu"

a jedan lider sto je okacen na banderu je rekao
"The first stage of fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of State and corporate power"

pa onda danasnje vesti

U.S. Forces Nine Major Banks To Accept Partial Nationalization

Officials: Financial crisis can lead to violence

Assigning U.S. Troops to U.S. Soil and Other Presidential Power Grabs
The Army Times broke the story early in September, reporting that the unit “may be called upon to help with civil unrest and crowd control or to deal with potentially horrific scenarios such as massive poisoning and chaos in response to a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or high-yield explosive, or CBRNE, attack....” Since the story ran, NORTHCOM officials have backed off from the “crowd control” and “civil unrest” purposes. As Col. Michael Boatner told Amy Goodman on the Oct. 7 episode of Democracy Now!, “We’re proud to be able to provide this capability. It’s all about saving lives, relieving suffering, mitigating great property damage to infrastructure and things like that, and frankly, restoring public confidence in the aftermath of an event like this.”



Brooklyn Brooklyn 13:02 14.10.2008

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Nego, Brook, zanima me sta ti mislis o poslednjim poduhvatima vlasti. Znas, siguran sam, da je Krugman pisao protiv ovih intervencija - tacnije protiv intervencije u ovakvom obliku.

mislim da se nije nesto uradilo da bi bila katastrofa kakvu ne mozemo da zamislimo. zamisli svet u kojem banke prestanu da pozajmljuju. svaka firma u razvijenom svetu ima neke loans. zamisli da sada te firme ne mogu da refinansiraju svoje zajmove. ne mogu da zamislim kako bi izgledao takav krah. a bili smo vrlo blizu toga; par nedelja away, da bi pocele da padaju ne samo finansijske institucije nego firme iz "real economy". ja znam da ja licno ne bih zelela da prezivljavam takav krah, ne znam kako se akademicima iz ivory towervilla.

tako da, niko nije srecan, ali je uradjeno ono sto je moralo; mozemo samo da raspravljamo da li je moglo bolje. sada se na predstojecu duboku recesiju gleda kao na happy end, posto je alternativa bila depresija neslucenih razmera.

e sada, da li je krizu izazvala drzava ili privatni sektor; svaki majmuncic od ekonomiste ima svoje misljenje ; posto je ista traljava nauka (ali ipak ne tako traljava da se njome bave filozofi).

u svakom slucaju ispostavilo se da to sto je neka sekretarica u nekom hedz fondu zaradjivala vise od inzinjera sa doktoratom ipak nije bilo fer, jer te finansijske institucije ipak nisu stvarale toliku dodatnu vrednost, koliku su prikazivale.

sta ti mislis; da li je paulson stvarno pao na kolena pred pelosi?
nsarski nsarski 13:08 14.10.2008

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sta ti mislis; da li je paulson stvarno pao na kolena pred pelosi?

Ja sam ga video svojim ocima na TV ekranu malog prijemnika.

Inace:
niko nije srecan, ali je uradjeno ono sto je moralo

tako nesto je i Krugman napisao.
jinks jinks 14:36 14.10.2008

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"The first stage of fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of State and corporate power"
Adolf, i mnogi njemu slicni, medju prvima su na listi onih koji su dosli tamo gde jesu tako sto su se predstavljali pre svega kao zastitnici siromasnihih delova drustva

Arhiva

   

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