How to Panic

Chris Farmer RSS / 22.11.2008. u 10:20

If I hear the words financial crisis again, I will most assuredly go mad.

I do not mean to downplay the significance of this "FC" (abbreviated to save my repetition). The ramifications and long term effects of the FC could be very deep and very far reaching. There is reason to be cautious. There is reason to be concerned. But we humans, sadly, are unable to measure our reactions. It is never enough to take in the news and think rationally about it. We see a splendid opportunity to panic. And we avail ourselves of it fully.

The media helps us along in this. Every day the headlines are gloomier and gloomier. Many broadcast news now show a live stock ticker so we can watch the DOW and CAC40 and the Hang Seng plummet over our dinner of stone soup and rationed chocolate. And we look, and we cluck our tongues, and we worry, and someone in the room decides to go Next Level on us. He talks panic!

The media is not to blame - they have a BIG STORY and they will talk about it. The problem is that we accept what they say and their speculations, and the effect is cumulative. The more stories we read about the End-of-the-World-As-We-Know-It, the more we start to believe. We become economy experts, and we profess our conclusions to our friends. And by the time we have finished, we are trading potatoes and carrots.

Here's how it works:

You own a bakery. You get up an ungodly hour to make your bread and pastries. Each day, as the dough is kneaded into submission, a little gets wasted and falls on the floor. On most days, you do not care.

When your customers roll in looking for bread, some of them do not have the right change. And you let them slip by with a dinar or two. One of them asks for an extra plastic bag - and on most days you give it to them. You hand our a few cookies or sweets to the children. When the Panic attacks, however, you change all this.

You start calculating the value of the lost dough, the dinar change, the price of sweets, the cost of the plastic bags. As a result, maybe you buy a little less dough. You may get up a little earlier to have time to carefully use each scrap. You may end up making smaller loaves of bread.

You might start to refuse customers if they are missing a dinar. You may shake you head at the cloying faces of children.

The whole concept of your bakery is posited on the idea that more customers will come tomorrow. You forgive excesses because you know that they can be rounded out at the end of the month or year. You have confidence that business will grow. In a Panic, however, you start thinking only about TODAY. You have no confidence that you will be able to stay in business tomorrow.

In practical terms, your quality of service and product will drop. And then fewer customers will come in. And then you see your sales fall. And then you get up EVEN EARLIER and pinch the dough harder.

Eventually, your loyal customers will be seen across the street at the non-panicked competitor's shop. He will be hiring people and repainting the façade while you will be installing 30 watt bulbs and turning off the heat.

And the whole process, if you follow, began with a panicky response to the Great FC of 2008. In your mind (remember you are still the baker), you start worrying about the price of generosity and waste. This does not even touch on the notion that when you panic, people sense it. They shy away from you. This is psychology. Not economics.

As a baker, your have permitted yourself to give in to the hype and started worrying about small savings. You have given in to the panic. And you have allowed yourself to forget one thing that still overrides.

People still need bread.

Atačmenti



Komentari (44)

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nsarski nsarski 10:32 22.11.2008

This is all well

in the case you happen to be a baker. But what happens if you are producing nonessentials, like super-duper-dial'o'matic magic sponge sharpeners?
Chris Farmer Chris Farmer 10:59 22.11.2008

Re: This is all well

Hm.... this may be a good time to rethink the business model...
niccolo niccolo 13:34 22.11.2008

Re: This is all well

But what happens if you are producing nonessentials, like super-duper-dial'o'matic magic sponge sharpeners?


Good point, nsarski. Only the best entrepreneurs in such businesses will survive. And they usually do not employ many employees, so they cannot count that the state will help them.
jednatanja jednatanja 12:58 22.11.2008

I suppose...

...the trick is to limit wasteful spending without the customer noticing?

The panicking cannot be categorized by groups, everything is connected: the small business is also a customer of the bank. If the bank lowers the credit limit, for example, the business will tighten the belt, and the customer will feel it in the end.

I am no finance expert, but I tend to agree with those who blame weakly regulated big business greed for the start of FC. I don´t know if us not panicking can correct that.
Chris Farmer Chris Farmer 13:26 22.11.2008

Re: I suppose...

Indeed, you are right about the interconnectivity. But giving in to panic will not help us either...
Dušan Maljković Dušan Maljković 13:21 22.11.2008

Financial CHRIS

"If I hear the words financial crisis again, I will most assuredly go mad."

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Chris Farmer Chris Farmer 13:27 22.11.2008

Re: Financial CHRIS

Congratulations! By reading each of your pasted words individually, the sense finally fades away until the words have no meaning anymore.

My deepest thanks!
Dušan Maljković Dušan Maljković 13:49 22.11.2008

Re: Financial CHRIS

Well I wanted to save you with this mantra... And the wisdom of East did it again! Thank you little Buddha!
maksa83 maksa83 14:33 22.11.2008

Re: Financial CHRIS

Congratulations! By reading each of your pasted words

They are not pasted.
Dušan single-handedly typed each and every one of them.

Rad je stvorio čoveka. (Karl Marx)
Dušan Maljković Dušan Maljković 14:39 22.11.2008

Re: Financial CHRIS

Rad je stvorio čoveka. (Karl Marx)


Eh nadam se da će to i od tebe učiniti... Samo malo truda, makso, i biće čovek od tebe!
maksa83 maksa83 14:48 22.11.2008

Re: Financial CHRIS

Maljkoviću uz punu (klasnu & društvenu) svest da me shvataš pogrešno - ali ja tebe stvarno gotivim kao sajber pojavu. Samo volim da se zezam, to je moj greh i porok.

Eh nadam se da će to i od tebe učiniti... Samo malo truda, makso, i biće čovek od tebe!

Obzirom da smo u fazi Imperiajlizma (koji je, kako reče drug Lenjin (ili Marks, bemliga) - poslednji stadijum kapitalizma), a potom nastaje revolucija koja će svima da se najebe keve, ne isplati mi se da se trudim za još ovo malo što je ostalo.

Nego, imaš ti neki insajd info - ka' će to?

Aprišijejtid.


U je, je l' ovo iz Kako Se Kalio Čelik?

Tako tako, samo ti radi, biće i od tebe nešto.
Dušan Maljković Dušan Maljković 15:22 22.11.2008

Re: Financial CHRIS

Aman makso pa ja sve ovo s'vatam kao zezanje, pa tako i dogovaram...

Evo, baš radim na analizi Das Kapitala, pa kad završim javiću ti...

"Imperijalizam kao NAJVIŠI stadijum kapitalizma" je Lenjinov tekst iz 1916. Evo i linka: http://www.rastko.org.yu/rastko/delo/10260
Domazet Domazet 21:57 22.11.2008

Bata Makso, i don't know...

maksa83
Maljkoviću uz punu (klasnu & društvenu) svest da me shvataš pogrešno - ali ja tebe stvarno gotivim kao sajber pojavu. Samo volim da se zezam, to je moj greh i porok.

Eh nadam se da će to i od tebe učiniti... Samo malo truda, makso, i biće čovek od tebe!

Obzirom da smo u fazi Imperiajlizma (koji je, kako reče drug Lenjin (ili Marks, bemliga) - poslednji stadijum kapitalizma), a potom nastaje revolucija koja će svima da se najebe keve, ne isplati mi se da se trudim za još ovo malo što je ostalo.

Nego, imaš ti neki insajd info - ka' će to?

Aprišijejtid.


U je, je l' ovo iz Kako Se Kalio Čelik?

Tako tako, samo ti radi, biće i od tebe nešto.

...if I already mentioned this but UofC is considering the name change for one of its Institutes. And my son is, at that very same UofC and right now, writing the fall paper on Karl Marx. Ej bre bata Maxo, na UofC, would you believe this? I wouldn’t, only couple months ago.
Nego Bata Maxo how about you change your name to Bata Marxa. You newer know, mozda ti se posreci...
maksa83 maksa83 23:04 22.11.2008

Re: Bata Makso, i don't know...

Nego Bata Maxo how about you change your name to Bata Marxa. You newer know, mozda ti se posreci...

Bemtisunce, dobih kuma pod stare dane, a da ga nisam tražio.

Pošto se kumstvo ni u jednom obliku ne odbija, ti me slobodno zovi Bata Marxo. Ja ću tebe Mićko. Dil?
Kume, nemo' da si kurva, kume što bi rekao Đenka dok ga Mirko davi.

Ne brini, spremam se za our new overlords, bio sam na Volksstimmefest, slikao se ispod transparenta Wir Sind Alle Cubaner, i izveštaj uredno dostavio na nadležno mesto, kod Maljkovića.

Ako treba i da menjam ime, anekideživot, samo nemo' da streljate. Opet.
Domazet Domazet 00:33 23.11.2008

Kakav te sada, Bata Markso, crni...

maksa83
Nego Bata Maxo how about you change your name to Bata Marxa. You newer know, mozda ti se posreci...

Bemtisunce, dobih kuma pod stare dane, a da ga nisam tražio.

Pošto se kumstvo ni u jednom obliku ne odbija, ti me slobodno zovi Bata Marxo. Ja ću tebe Mićko. Dil?
Kume, nemo' da si kurva, kume što bi rekao Đenka dok ga Mirko davi.

Ne brini, spremam se za our new overlords, bio sam na Volksstimmefest, slikao se ispod transparenta Wir Sind Alle Cubaner, i izveštaj uredno dostavio na nadležno mesto, kod Maljkovića.

Ako treba i da menjam ime, anekideživot, samo nemo' da streljate. Opet.

...kum spopao, da ti to ne pretis? Nego nisam hteo o tome, bas sam se onako zahebao. Ja mislio ono '83' godina rodjenja. A ispade godina zivota. Ne bih verovao da ne rece kol'ko dugo pamtis. Jos duze od mene. Eto ja zaboravio kad smo ono mi streljali.

Tvoj (kum?) Micko
maksa83 maksa83 00:44 23.11.2008

Re: Kakav te sada, Bata Markso, crni...

...kum spopao, da ti to ne pretis? Nego nisam hteo o tome, bas sam se onako zahebao. Ja mislio ono '83' godina rodjenja.

Dammit kume Mićko, baš udaraš tamo gde boli. Ali to je u srpskoj kumovskoj tradiciji, pa da prihvatimo to sa veseljem. Nije, to 83 mi je prikačio b92 u svom tranzitivnom petingu sa Telekomom kada su pravili b92.fm., pošto je već postojao neki Telekomov maksa a i maksa92 je bilo zauzeto. Moje nerviranje oko toga je uveliko dokumentovano. Znao sam da će kad tad neko pomisliti da je to godina proizvodnje.

Eto ja zaboravio kad smo ono mi streljali.


E ako niste, onda ništa, ćeramo dalje, snažno & uz pesmu.

Tvoje,
kumče đed Marxa
Domazet Domazet 05:37 23.11.2008

Re: Kakav te sada, Bata Markso, crni...

maksa83
...kum spopao, da ti to ne pretis? Nego nisam hteo o tome, bas sam se onako zahebao. Ja mislio ono '83' godina rodjenja.

Dammit kume Mićko, baš udaraš tamo gde boli. Ali to je u srpskoj kumovskoj tradiciji, pa da prihvatimo to sa veseljem. Nije, to 83 mi je prikačio b92 u svom tranzitivnom petingu sa Telekomom kada su pravili b92.fm., pošto je već postojao neki Telekomov maksa a i maksa92 je bilo zauzeto. Moje nerviranje oko toga je uveliko dokumentovano. Znao sam da će kad tad neko pomisliti da je to godina proizvodnje.

Eto ja zaboravio kad smo ono mi streljali.


E ako niste, onda ništa, ćeramo dalje, snažno & uz pesmu.

Tvoje,
kumče đed Marxa

pa to si sam kriv. Da si lepo, od pocetka, uzeo ono Marxa ne bi sad morao da se pravdas. Nego, neka to, ne rece mi jeste li vi streljali?
maksa83 maksa83 07:01 23.11.2008

Re: Kakav te sada, Bata Markso, crni...

Nego, neka to, ne rece mi jeste li vi streljali?

Naravno. Nekritički i paušalno. Nekog i po više puta ako je nedokazan.
Tak'a je priroda stvari - streljaj ili budi streljan.

Reci qme šta te još zanima?
Domazet Domazet 16:15 23.11.2008

Vidis li ti to moj...

maksa83
Nego, neka to, ne rece mi jeste li vi streljali?

Naravno. Nekritički i paušalno. Nekog i po više puta ako je nedokazan.
Tak'a je priroda stvari - streljaj ili budi streljan.

Reci qme šta te još zanima?
...kume((!)?), jos ce na kraju da ispadne da jedino Marks nije streljao. Mozda zbog toga sto nije Balkanac?
Milan Novković Milan Novković 13:48 22.11.2008

Panic

Evolutionary speaking negative had somewhat higher significance - it was threatening the very existence so survival instinct demanded faster and deeper reaction, individual and collective, and stronger positive feedback increasing the speed even further. Until we get into saturation by going mad or otherwise :)

For media businesses these are good times for two reasons - enhanced interest of consumers and lower price of content.

Systemic shifts, then, bring opportunities to some other old or new bright guys.
nsarski nsarski 14:26 22.11.2008

Re: Panic

For media businesses these are good times for two reasons - enhanced interest of consumers and lower price of content.

Haahaaa, you mean, like if somebody needs to buy a car, you send them a really pretty picture of one?:))
Want to go to a tropical island for vacation? No, problemo! Here is how it looks. Or, even better! Buy a DVD and enjoy the sights and sounds.

Re: Panic

there is a trend in states, people actually go to their local hotels for special deals, few nights, and pretend to be on vacation. is saves money and boosts local economy!
nsarski nsarski 15:09 22.11.2008

Re: Panic

Ana WithAFamilyNameTooHardToPron
there is a trend in states, people actually go to their local hotels for special deals, few nights, and pretend to be on vacation. is saves money and boosts local economy!

Yeah, baby! Now you can buy a DVD with a two hour long presentation of fire burning in the fireplace. You can watch it on one of the five Made in China flat screen monitors you bought last year in WalMart. Ideal for Christmas! No need to buy firewood or dirty your hands! Get the whole family together and enjoy the true holiday atmosphere in the privacy of your family room!
Milan Novković Milan Novković 15:40 22.11.2008

Re: Panic

like if somebody needs to buy a car, you send them a really pretty picture of one?:))

That's an extreme :)

But, supply/demand forces can go a long way in that direction - help generating demand and you get the same thing at higher price, or, for the same price you get less of a thing, or lesser thing :) We can even hope for a reduced price and get some kind of a special offer :)

And we do help with the demand - they can get some kind of a rough measure of what we watch nowadays. So, as we help with our watching, marketing revenue goes up. At the same time if content happens to be cheap we have a paradise for media companies. Filling-in the time they have to fill-in is done in a better price-performance manner (from media industry's perspective)

And we, the viewers, what do we get? We are getting more performant as well, I guess :) At least we are filling-in our spare time at lower cost, intellectual and monetary :)
Nebojša Spaić Nebojša Spaić 14:35 22.11.2008

Couldn't resist

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crisis financial crisis financial crisis financial crisis financial crisis financial crisis financial crisis financial crisis
Chris Farmer Chris Farmer 17:05 22.11.2008

Re: Couldn't resist

DPD,

Thanks.... I needed that.

CBF
Nebojša Spaić Nebojša Spaić 17:27 22.11.2008

Re: Couldn't resist

Do not mention. Pleasure is all mine.
Jelena Pavlović Jelena Pavlović 15:52 23.11.2008

Re: Couldn't resist

Oh what a beautiful morning, oh what a beautiful world..........................................................................
dali76 dali76 18:43 22.11.2008

they have no problem

It is amazing how much psychology of panic can precipitates the crisis.
Few days ago CEO/s from three leading car industry companies arrived to Washington to ask for money.
They came with their private jets. I mean their companies pay for that.
How much money they could save if they decide to come with let’s say business class commercial flight? We are talking about millions vs. thousands.
Apparently, some people have no problem with psychology of panic.

bindu bindu 19:04 22.11.2008

.

myredneckself myredneckself 19:40 22.11.2008

How to panic

There is reason to be concerned. But we humans, sadly, are unable to measure our reactions. It is never enough to take in the news and think rationally about it. We see a splendid opportunity to panic. And we avail ourselves of it fully.

Hi Chris,
Yes, people panic...They really think some lunatics who haven't got a clue, are in charge. A few weeks ago... I was worried there for a minute until I heard G.Bush claim that the global FC is not " a failure of the free market system"! I really needed him to put me at ease
jack_bauer jack_bauer 04:13 23.11.2008

chris,

I think, this is the core of your post...

You own a bakery. You get up an ungodly hour to make your bread and pastries. Each day, as the dough is kneaded into submission, a little gets wasted and falls on the floor. On most days, you do not care.

When your customers roll in looking for bread, some of them do not have the right change. And you let them slip by with a dinar or two. One of them asks for an extra plastic bag - and on most days you give it to them. You hand our a few cookies or sweets to the children. When the Panic attacks, however, you change all this.

I whish it was that easy. the distribution of percentages among wasted dough, dinars and plastic bags, relative to the entire business operation is somewhat different, I am affraid. I believe that 70% of the people world-wide will not be affected by fc (of which, 75% had nothing to loose, anyway, and some 25% are essential personnel in every economy). top 5 % , the richest, will nominally lose enormous amounts of money, but will still stay the richest. that lives us with, about, 25% of world population that will go bankrupt, or become nothing-have-to-lose club member in some similar manner. and that is no small number. I am talking usa, europe, russia, india and china.

it started happening here in the states, quite few months ago. I personally know several tens of people who lost their jobs and everything that goes whit it. and just wait for the big three in detroit to go down?

yes, people still need bread, but how much bread?
macak92 macak92 07:46 23.11.2008

Re: chris,

yes, people still need bread, but how much bread?


So far it works OK for me. I was able to find a table in my favorite restaurant tonight! Waiting time - 0 minutes

Just kidding. But, I agree with Chris that "relaxed" cost management, so immanent in reach economies, is one of the problems that have led this (American) society into FC. That "Nothing can harm me" and "Money will keep on coming" attitudes resulted in bad business strategies. However, it is not always and only about bad strategy that this economy has had in recent years. It is probably more about bad implantation of the strategy. Intentionally bad implementation! Unethical business behavior, bribes and even extortion have been awfully present in the society that is so big on moral values and where anybody can bring a suit against everybody for anything. How come? Who allowed this?
Well, probably not a small baker... The best he can do amid all the mess is to try to spare some dough and cut unnecessary expenses.
jack_bauer jack_bauer 08:59 23.11.2008

Re: chris,

I was able to find a table in my favorite restaurant tonight! Waiting time - 0 minutes

Similar thing happened to me yesterday, with my low car tire. I went to the tire shop, and, two guys jumped on it and got it fixed in a blink of an eye. For such a simple service you would almost have had to make an appointment in my town, not so long time ago. What do you think, is this god or bad for us? I think it can’t be god, in a long run.

Anyway, the point I was trying to make is that Chris is overly simplifying the seriousness of the crisis (just the way his business partner Spaja would :)). It's a bit more serious than just the case of a baker who’s trying to cut the corners…

on brighter side

psychologists say that the crisis is good for your spiritual well being.
the emphasis has been on material side to life and ownership, but at the time of crisis, people spend more time thinking of their families. those who loose jobs, recogise some of the beauties of spending a day with their children. then, they start doing little jobs and realise that there is more to life than wrk, work, work, 20 hrs a day. they learn that they do not need 5 bedroom house, all those expensive cars, etc.
this, of course applies to UK , States and alike. I don't think that people of Serbia have ever fallen for hard-work big money story.
jack_bauer jack_bauer 09:31 23.11.2008

Re: on brighter side

psychologists say that the crisis is good for your spiritual well being.
the emphasis has been on material side to life and ownership, but at the time of crisis, people spend more time thinking of their families. those who loose jobs, recogise some of the beauties of spending a day with their children. then, they start doing little jobs and realise that there is more to life than wrk, work, work, 20 hrs a day. they learn that they do not need 5 bedroom house, all those expensive cars, etc.

Yeah, right, tell that to the people who lost their jobs
Chris Farmer Chris Farmer 09:37 23.11.2008

Re: chris,

Jack,

I think it is a foregone conclusion that I was oversimplifying the FC and its incumbant problems. Clearly this is far more complex than I would ever pretend to understand. My point is another one - that panic and irrational thinking inevitably lead to wrong decisions.

If a baker's sound business plan could save world's financial woes, then the underlying problem would not be as serious as it actually is.

jack_bauer jack_bauer 09:45 23.11.2008

Re: chris,

Clearly this is far more complex than I would ever pretend to understand.

Same here. I say, let’s give this new baker a chance . And, give Spaja my greatings
macak92 macak92 10:46 23.11.2008

Re: on brighter side

jack_bauer
psychologists say that the crisis is good for your spiritual well being.
the emphasis has been on material side to life and ownership, but at the time of crisis, people spend more time thinking of their families. those who loose jobs, recogise some of the beauties of spending a day with their children. then, they start doing little jobs and realise that there is more to life than wrk, work, work, 20 hrs a day. they learn that they do not need 5 bedroom house, all those expensive cars, etc.

Yeah, right, tell that to the people who lost their jobs


I agree. Here in the States the whole towns are shutting down. It is very depressing, and it will be even more. Downsizing bedrooms, cars, and everything else is rationale in times like this, but I am not sure that it brings any good for spiritual well being. Especially when there are not other options.
That Jewish curse:"Dabogda imao pa nemao" (It sounds better in Serbian) sounds rather scary.
jack_bauer jack_bauer 11:48 23.11.2008

Re: on brighter side

Well, one thing is for certain, gas prices are coming down big time. That’s something to begin with

Re: on brighter side

jack_bauer
psychologists say that the crisis is good for your spiritual well being.the emphasis has been on material side to life and ownership, but at the time of crisis, people spend more time thinking of their families. those who loose jobs, recogise some of the beauties of spending a day with their children. then, they start doing little jobs and realise that there is more to life than wrk, work, work, 20 hrs a day. they learn that they do not need 5 bedroom house, all those expensive cars, etc. Yeah, right, tell that to the people who lost their jobs

relax, jack! you are supposed to be a cool bloke
jack_bauer jack_bauer 01:00 24.11.2008

Re: on brighter side

Yeah, right, tell that to the people who lost their jobs

relax, jack! you are supposed to be a cool bloke

That thing, last night, that was my evil twin brother Igor. He jumped for my comp. while I was at the... well, whatever. But, look, the pilot show that I was telling you about before, starts here in about four hours... and counting
mikimedic mikimedic 12:39 24.11.2008

How to Panic?

Milan, Milan Panic?
Kazezoze Kazezoze 13:18 26.11.2008

Re: How to Panic?

If the global crisis continues, by the end of the year, only two Banks will
be operational, the Blood Bank and the Sperm Bank .
Logically.... Those 2 banks will merge and will be called
'The Bloody Fucking Bank'.


Arhiva

   

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