A near-perfect fighting machine

 

RingTV.com Co-Editors Doug Fischer and Michael Rosenthal have different takes on the Manny Pacquiao-Joshua Clottey fight on March 13 at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Fischer thinks it will be a competitive fight, Rosenthal doesn’t.

Here are Fischer’s five reasons the fight will be competitive and Rosenthal’s five reasons it wont.

WILL BE COMPETITIVE

1. SIZE: Clottey is a natural welterweight. Pacquiao has delivered in his two welterweight outings, but it should be noted that Oscar De La Hoya foolishly came in too light and Cotto is not a large 147 pounder. Clottey, who stands around 5-foot-8, is not a tall welterweight but he’s very compact with dense muscle. The Ghanaian, who fights comfortably and effectively at junior middleweight, has not weighed in the junior welterweight range since he was 19 years old. It wouldn’t be a shock to insiders if Clottey weighed a rock-solid 160 pounds on fight night for Pacquiao.

2. DEFENSE: When Clottey covers up behind his high guard, his opponents might as well be fighting a bowling ball. He tucks his chin behind his gloves, offering only the top of his bald head as a potentially dangerous target, while his forearms and elbows almost completely cover his stomach and frontal rib area. Clottey, who seldom drops his hands, also does a good job of leaning away from punches. Few fighters love a shootout as much as Pacquiao because the dynamic southpaw does his best work against aggressive opponents. Clottey’s hit-and-cover-up tactics may frustrate the Filipino, who will have a difficult time landing clean punches to the bigger man’s chin and body.

3. DURABILITY: Even if Pacquiao is able to penetrate Clottey’s high guard, the welterweight contender has the last line of defense for any fighter lucky enough to have this attribute: a rock-solid chin. Although Clottey, who has never been stopped in a professional bout, was dropped by a stiff jab from Cotto in the first round of their bout (the only time he‘s ever been down), he has never appeared to be seriously hurt in a fight. Both Cotto and Zab Judah are known for their power but neither fighter could hurt or discourage Clottey, even when they landed clean shots. Antonio Margarito set an all-time CompuBox record of 1,675 total punches thrown in a 12-round bout against Clottey and never came close to hurting the Ghanaian.

4. BODY PUNCHING: Every hardcore fan knows about Clottey’s quick jab and his textbook left uppercut, but he also has a crippling left to the body with which he’s able to punctuate one-two combinations or sneak in after he lands his uppercut. Clottey’s left to the body is hard and accurate enough to have stopped junior middleweight opponents and it was a key punch in giving both Cotto and Margarito fits in their tough 12-round outings with him. Pacquiao proved to have world-class welterweight whiskers during his showdown with Cotto, but how well does he take a genuine 147 pounder’s punch to the body?

5. UNDERRATED FOOTWORK: Clottey’s not known for his lateral or in-and-out movement because he’s not a stick-and-move specialist but his foot placement (balance) and footwork is better than many fans realize. Clottey’s footwork is subtle but effective. He is very good at taking half a step out of his opponent’s range while blocking in-coming punches with his gloves and then stepping back in range to catch them off guard. Clottey is also good at pivoting to the side of his opponents when in close and catching them with punches at an angle. Like his fists, his feet are deceptively quick; not as quick as Pacquiao’s but perhaps fast and nimble enough to trouble the 4-to-1 odds favorite.

WON'T BE COMPETITIVE

1. TALENT: Sometimes we overanalyze matchups, asking and then trying to answer myriad questions in our minds. Who’s bigger? Who has a better chin? Who’s in better condition? Who’s in a better state of mind? Who has more big-fight experience? Who has a better trainer? These and many more are legitimate questions. However, one question supersedes all others: Who is better? The answer is obvious in the case of Pacquiao vs. Clottey. The Filipino has evolved into a near-perfect fighting machine – skilled, fast, powerful, resilient, experienced, well-prepared, you name it. Clottey is very good, nothing more. This fight will not be close.

2. TRAINERS: The difference here couldn’t be more stark. Pacquiao works with the leading trainer in the world , Freddie Roach, with whom he has developed a zen-like rapport. Roach sculpted a very good, but raw slab of Filipino marble into a work of art. Clottey is being trained by Pacquiao’s former cut man, Lenny De Jesus, who also has some training experience. Godwin Kotay normally works with Clottey but couldn’t get a visa to enter the U.S., reportedly leaving Clottey very upset. Roach and De Jesus won’t be fighting but guidance in preparation and in the corner during the fight can be the difference between success and failure.

3. SPEED: Pacquiao’s opponents seem to have the same reaction after they fight him: “Man, this guy is fast.” His blazing-quick punches also come from all sorts of crazy angles, which makes him all the more baffling. And his foot speed might be more impressive than his hand speed. Pacquiao darts in, punches and darts out before his opponents have a chance to react. Clottey said he’ll be able to hit Pacquiao enough to slow him down – as he did against quick-handed Zab Judah -- but I don’t think he can do it this time. Pacquiao’s ability to land fast, hard punches and avoid Clottey’s counters because of his mobility will be the key to the fight.

4. WORK RATE: One criticism of Clottey is that he doesn’t throw enough punches, which he attributed to the fact he’s a welterweight and not a smaller fighter. Welterweights, he said, must focus more on quality than quantity when punching. That isn’t going to cut it on March 13. Even if Clottey frustrates Pacquiao to some degree with his defensive skills and lands some counters, he will get outworked and lose a one-sided decision or get stopped late anyway. Clottey would have to change his approach to boxing to match Pacquiao’s pace, which isn’t going to happen. Clottey’s only chance to win is to hurt Pacquiao and then take him out. That isn’t going to happen, either.

5. POWER: We’re told that Clottey is the bigger and stronger man, which might be true. Still, Pacquiao is the big puncher in this matchup. You saw what happened when he nailed Miguel Cotto for the first time; Cotto retreated the rest of the fight. Clottey has a better chin than Cotto, meaning he might be able to withstand a good shot or two. However, he will be able to take only so many before he breaks down and Pacquiao finishes the job. One of two things will happen after Clottey feels Pacquiao’s power: He will try to fight back and get knocked out in the middle to late-middle rounds or he will follow Cotto’s lead and go into survival mode. Either way, Clottey loses.