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Srbija 2020

Djukanovic’s victory

Although the hot subject of the day should probably be the European Water Polo victory the sweetness of that victory was for me soured by news from our ‘nearest and dearest’.

I am of course referring to the elections in Montenegro that took place this weekend. (Not that you would have even noticed if you were living in Serbia coverage was minimal)

My position on Montenegrin independence is pretty ambivalent – for sure it would have been nice to remain in the same country but hell it’s not as if one expects anything else bearing in mind the balkansiation of the region in the past decade or so. During the referendum we had Serbian and Montenegrin experts and analysts and even some politicians queuing up to tell us that the referendum should not be seen as a sign for the support of Milo Djukanovic. Ordinary Montenegrin voters were quoted in the Serbian and Montenegrin media as saying that they only reluctantly supported Milo Djukanovic but on balance thought that independence was the better option. Post referendum a consensus was reached between analysts, experts and moderate politicians who claimed that now the vote was out of the way Montenegrin politics would change for the better.

The theory went that support for Djukanovic and of ethnic parties would fall whilst support for parties like the Movement for Change led by Nebojsa Medojevic would change the political landscape in Montenegro.

In the cold light of day we see that this was just another illusion. The scenario is now pretty grim and one of the worst combination of factors for Montenegrin stability.

Djukanovic won the vote pretty easily and will almost certainly form a majority in the Montenegrin Parliament – with the support of the ethnic Albanian or Bosniak party of course.

So, what do we have? We have the only Milosevic era politician left standing tall, good for another few years at least. We have more ethnic parties in Montenegro including the Serb Radical Party backed ‘Serb list’. We will have ethnic parties holding the balance of power. And lets face it, its not as if the Serbs of Montenegro don’t already believe that Djukanovic pursues a friendlier line (shall we say) toward Albanians and Bosniaks than he does towards Serbs, so Bosniak / Albanian support of Djukanovic will increase Serb suspicion and resentment.

Much of this leaves me disappointed and almost makes me angry – and if I feel that way I can only imagine what moderate Montenegrins feel.


Any comments? Does anybody see the election result as a positive...