Politika| Region

How to westernize and stabilize the WB?

Goran Nikolić RSS / 14.03.2019. u 16:32

Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) is confronted with practically permanent major disagreements between national political elites, even about marginal issues. Problems are particularly pronounced on the Sarajevo - Banja Luka level. Namely, two constitutional entities (Federation of B&H and Republika Srpska) of this dysfunctional (con) federal state, are constantly trying to either strengthen state competencies or secede. The last elections on October 7, 2018, with the huge victories of ‘nationalist' political parties in both entities, are just an additional proof of these tendencies. And the Kosovo problem, although interpreted by the West as a special case and not a precedent, sends a message about a possible change of boundaries. Also, disputes between the Macedonian and Albanian ethnic communities are almost constant.
It seems that international, or Western, involvement in relations in the Western Balkans region while preventing armed conflicts, is insufficient to lead to sustainable, majority-accepted solutions. Serbia's relations with the West are a special problem because anti-Western rhetoric and majority orientation of the public opinion keep the country in a certain distance towards the United States and the countries of Western Europe. For example, support for EU accession is relatively low (barely two-fifths), while only about a tenth of the population supports integration in NATO. The Albanian elites are increasingly dissatisfied because of the inability to create a single state, which would include Kosovo (and possibly part of Western Macedonia). The creation of a nation in Kosovo is in a more advanced phase, and Tirana could soon de facto face Kosovo as a distinct nation, in the European sense of the word (the case when a certain part of the community that shares the same language, religion and a good deal of narrative with its other part turns into a special boundary-bound state and nation; indicative are examples of Moldova and Montenegro).
The partial changes in the borders in the Western Balkans have recently been proposed by prominent authors, such as Timothy Less (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/bosnia-herzegovina/2016-12-20/dysfunction-balkans), Daniel Serwer (https://www.cfr.org/report/unraveling-balkans-peace-agreements), Steven Meyer (https://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKL1326714620070413 http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-risks-of-an-imposed-settlement-1520?page=show) or John Schindler (http://observer.com/2017/05/vladimir-putin-russia-balkans-threat/). In addition, the problematic influence of non-Western powers (Russia and Turkey) in the Balkans is addressed in articles of Ted Galen Carpenter (http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/old-nightmare-returns-the-balkans-simmer-again-21192?page=show) and Vuk Vuksanović (http://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-the-balkans-were-won-turkish-foreign-policy-success-22771?page=show). However, they did not mention an important part of this great equation, which is the westernization of Serbia, which could be desirable as a result of such a process. The stabilization of the entire region, as an additional product of this project, is something that both authors have correctly emphasized.
Let's assume that Serbia is allowed to integrate most of the territory of the Republika Srpska, and that at the same time Albania gets unified with Kosovo. Simultaneously, Serbia would submit an application for NATO membership by starting its MAP plan, which this military-political alliance should support.
These three strictly packaged and interdependent acts would produce tectonic changes in the Western Balkans. Serbia would necessarily and probably irreversibly turn to the US and Western Europe, while certain strong opposition from Russia might lead to a lasting deterioration of Moscow-Belgrade relations. Something similar happened after the end of the First World War (1918), when the Serbian elite held pronounced Anglophile (and Francophile) orientations. The recognition of Kosovo and its admission to the UN would not be necessary since Kosovo would not be a separate state, and Serbia would continue to have regular relations with (now-expanded) Albania.
The question is who would not benefit from such a solution? In addition to the aforementioned official Moscow, partly dissatisfied could be Bosniaks and Croatia. In the case of Croatia, or Bosnian Croats, the solution should be sought in an additional constitutionally defined protection of their collective rights within the existing Federation of B&H (which includes ten cantons). The problem with the Bosniaks could be solved by territorial concessions by Serbs. Namely, two critical points for Bosniaks are: East Sarajevo and the route Ključ-Jajce (which effectively connects the Una-Sana Canton and the Central Bosnia Canton), which could, together with the territory southwest of that corridor, become part of the Federation of B&H (it is territory of about 1.5 thousand km2 or 3% of B&H's total area). The Brčko District could remain what it currently is: a condominium, or the common territory of Serbia and the Federation of B&H (and could become the seat of some regional initiatives and organizations). An additional mitigating circumstance for the Bosniak elites is that B&H's dysfunctional structure is practically linked to its state level, not entities' one (see: EU must recognize new force for Balkan's destabilization; https://euobserver.com/opinion/143402). Namely, the current constitution of the Federation of B&H includes mechanisms that prevent the permanent blocking of decisions (for example, there are no cantonal vetoes, while possible complaints of representatives of one of the clubs of the constitutional nations go to the Federation of B&H Constitutional Court, which is still relatively functional). The possible demarcation of Macedonians and Albanians in Macedonia, where the current plurality of one of the two ethnic groups in the municipalities would be a criterion, could also prove to be a recipe for stability (municipalities with relative Albanian majority would be attached to a newly-enlarged Albania).
Such a reconfiguration would lead to a situation comparable to European practice in which the national state, with one dominant nation and national minorities with different modalities of the protection of rights, is practically a norm of the state organization. That reconfiguration would not imply any "human displacement" or "population exchange" and would imply the continuation of all acquired minority rights under new circumstances (with a desirable accompanying series of agreements on more detailed regulation of relations in the spheres of economy, social rights, culture, etc).
It is essential that the West, meaning Washington and Brussels, are the main creators of the 'new order'. A 'historic agreement' would happen at a conference similar to Dayton, where heads of state or government (Serbia, Federation of B&H, Albania, and possibly Macedonia) would not be dissolved without the final binding durable solution that the parliaments of the same countries would confirm. Additionally, NATO could serve as a security and stabilization guarantor.
Of course, the question is whether the "Great Deal" would bring peace and long-term good neighborly relations. All the chance is that this is a far greater chance than in the case of the status quo.

 



Komentari (36)

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nsarski nsarski 16:59 14.03.2019

I would like to know

why is this post written in English?

The rest of my earlier comment was clearly pointless.

(If you need a translation, I will gladly supply Serbian version of my comment).

Bili Piton Bili Piton 18:00 14.03.2019

Re: I would like to know

Personally I think it's rather fab to have a foreign language playroom, we haven't had one of those for a good while.

I mean, just for the fuck of it.
Goran Nikolić Goran Nikolić 18:04 14.03.2019

Re: I would like to know

my intention was also to present this idea somebody who is not native speakers of Serbian and similar languages.
stefan.hauzer stefan.hauzer 18:18 14.03.2019

Re: I would like to know

Bili Piton
Personally I think it's rather fab to have a foreign language playroom, we haven't had one of those for a good while.

I mean, just for the fuck of it.



This new album of Maggie Rogers is just amazing:



nsarski nsarski 18:19 14.03.2019

Re: I would like to know

Goran Nikolić
my intention was also to present this idea somebody who is not native speakers of Serbian and similar languages.


In this way you have eliminated those readers who do not speak English and are dying to learn how to westernize themselves.

(The rest of this comment was also pointless. So I erased it.)
mirelarado mirelarado 18:21 14.03.2019

Re: I would like to know

Goran Nikolić
my intention was also to present this idea somebody who is not native speakers of Serbian and similar languages.


I sincerely hope somebody (whoever that could be) would appreciate your effort.
neverovatan neverovatan 19:25 14.03.2019

Re: I would like to know

Goran Nikolić
my intention was also to present this idea somebody who is not native speakers of Serbian and similar languages.

Pa bilo bi onda bolje da si ga napisao na mađarskom ili ruskom.
Ja sam ga razumeo slično onome kako je naveo jedan bloger ovde.
No, ono što mi nikada nije bilo jasno je - da li ima ijedan stranac koji za slične stupidarije, zaista, daje parice?
niccolo niccolo 21:06 14.03.2019

Re: I would like to know

Namely, two constitutional entities (Federation of B&H and Republika Srpska) of this dysfunctional (con) federal state, are constantly trying to either strengthen state competencies or secede.

To strengthen, or to secede, that is the question!
kamilo_emericki kamilo_emericki 23:32 14.03.2019

Re: I would like to know

Otkad politicki i ekonomski eksperti na engleskom kroje sudbinu Balkana na Balkanu imamo potoke krvi i rijeke izbjeglica.
Srđan Fuchs Srđan Fuchs 16:35 15.03.2019

Re: I would like to know

niccolo

To strengthen, or to secede, that is the question!


to strengthen, and to secede!
okej je ideja o vesternizaciji, samo još da očekujemo da Hrvati, i sva naša bulumenta Ruja u debeu, muriji, vojsci i high bizu sede skrštenih ruku dok nas The West vesternizuje.
Srđan Fuchs Srđan Fuchs 16:46 15.03.2019

Re: I would like to know


The rest of my earlier comment was clearly pointless

A ko ti je taj sumljivac Daniel Serwer, i zašto je sumljiv?

Edit: Aha, kapiram.

Between 1998 and 2010 Serwer was a vice-president at the United States Institute of Peace, serving for all but one year of his term as vice-president for peace and stability operations at USIP. During that time he led the USIP's peace-building work in Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan and the Balkans. At USIP, Serwer specialized in preventing inter-ethnic and sectarian conflict.


Što bi rekli naši Ateisti - "ne da ga je napravio nego stvarno svaka čas'!"

maksa83 maksa83 17:06 15.03.2019

Re: I would like to know

United States Institute of Peace,

To kao Vegeterijanski Institut Matijević...

nsarski nsarski 17:27 15.03.2019

Re: I would like to know

A ko ti je taj sumljivac Daniel Serwer, i zašto je sumljiv?


Ma, to je neki omanji ker iz trećeg ešalona kerbera koje šalju neocons, povremeno boravi ovde i prokenja nešto "mudro" i šokantno, kao da on uopšte o bilo čemu odlučuje.

Evo jednan njegov skoriji Stercore Tauri

Povodom četvrtih masovnih protesta građana Crne Gore protiv aktuelne vlasti, koji se održavaju pod nazivom "Odupri se 97000", profesor Univerziteta Džon Hopkins u Vašingtonu Danijel Server kaže da je smenjivost vlasti neophodna, da bi on to želeo da vidi, bolje pre nego kasnije, ali da je za to potrebna opozicija koja nije vezana za Moskvu.

Prema njegovim rečima, realna mogućnost smenjivanja partija na vlasti je od vitalnog demokratskog značaja i glavna je karakteristika ozbiljne demokratije.

Međutim, smatra da sada nema prostora da se predsednik Milo Đukanović povuče jer opozicione snage u Crnoj Gori ne dovode u pitanje samo članstvo u Alijansi i ulazak u EU, već i crnogorsku nezavisnost.


Znači, dobro bi bilo da se smeni Milo (ispalo rimovanje!), ali sada nije trenutak jer oni koji su protiv njega bi ugrozili nezavisnost države.
Ko razume, shvatiće mudrolije ovog kera.
jadragoljub jadragoljub 18:27 14.03.2019

uh


od ovoga guugl prevodilac crko, utepaste ga ko pile
Bili Piton Bili Piton 18:47 14.03.2019

Re: uh

od ovoga guugl prevodilac crko, utepaste ga ko pile



Of this guuggler, the translator is a chick, and he is daring to chase him
jadragoljub jadragoljub 19:27 14.03.2019

Re: uh

Bili Piton
od ovoga guugl prevodilac crko, utepaste ga ko pile



Of this guuggler, the translator is a chick, and he is daring to chase him

stebe sag razgovaram samo ovako

Jeg snakker bare om stebe sag

a i ostali nisu sigurni od ja
shone shone 18:50 14.03.2019

I would like to know

Blog se bavi temom koja svakako nije iz oblasti ,,renesansne,, i bilo koje druge ekonomije.
Ajde da pokušam bar da čujem mišljenje - onako usput ako ima raspoloženja - koji je najbolji recept da četvoročlana porodica preživi danas u Srbiji sa realnom cenom potrošačke korpe i troškova života.

Teško se prevodi sa engleskog kad je stomak prazan a um presisan stresom i problemima.
aureus aureus 22:38 14.03.2019

Skolstrejk för klimatet



Ko razumije ovo bez Guglovog prevodioca?
jadragoljub jadragoljub 22:43 14.03.2019

Re: Skolstrejk för klimatet

aureus


Ko razumije ovo bez Guglovog prevodioca?

ih, to i ja razumem al nemam pojma koji je to jezik, neki vikinški, a?
aureus aureus 22:48 14.03.2019

Re: Skolstrejk för klimatet

jadragoljub
aureus

Ko razumije ovo bez Guglovog prevodioca?

ih, to i ja razumem

Kako da ti vjerujem?
Prevedi.
jadragoljub jadragoljub 22:54 14.03.2019

Re: Skolstrejk för klimatet

aureus
jadragoljub
aureus

Ko razumije ovo bez Guglovog prevodioca?

ih, to i ja razumem

Kako da ti vjerujem?
Prevedi.

školski štrajk protiv klimatskih promena, a? šta kažeš,bez gugla.
aureus aureus 22:59 14.03.2019

Re: Skolstrejk för klimatet

jadragoljub
aureus
jadragoljub
aureus

Ko razumije ovo bez Guglovog prevodioca?

ih, to i ja razumem

Kako da ti vjerujem?
Prevedi.

školski štrajk protiv klimatskih promena, a? šta kažeš,bez gugla.

Bravo!

Evo, sad prevedi i ovo.

GRETA THUNBERG is an unlikely figurehead. In August the then 15-year-old high-school student walked out of her classroom and took up position outside Sweden’s parliament with a hand-painted sign that read “skolstrejk för klimatet” (school strike for climate change). Sitting alone on the cobblestones, she provoked puzzled looks from passers-by. Seven months later Ms Thunberg finds herself at the helm of a global movement. On March 15th tens of thousands of school children around the world are expected to join Ms Thunberg by leaving their classrooms in order to protest against climate change. Organisers say that children are planning strikes in some 1,700 towns and cities in 106 countries, from Canada, to Tanzania to Australia. It could be one of the biggest climate protests ever. So what are the school climate strikes?

Ms Thunberg decided to act following last summer’s record European heatwaves, which led to wildfires across Sweden. Politicians are her main target. Frustrated by their inaction over climate change, she has skipped school every Friday since August and plans to keep going on strike until Swedish government policies are in-line with the Paris climate targets, which aim to keep the global rise in temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Her protest snowballed into a global movement. In February thousands of British pupils held a nationwide walk-out; young green activists have become a regular sight in city centres across Germany. Ms Thunberg’s activism has been applauded at the UN and she was invited to Davos in January, where she blasted bigwigs for not facing up to the realities of climate change. On March 14th she was nominated for the Nobel peace prize.
nsarski nsarski 23:21 14.03.2019

Re: Skolstrejk för klimatet

On March 14th she was nominated for the Nobel peace prize.


Koju će, ne sumnjam, dobiti. Ej, Švedžanka. Makar će osujetiti nekog od mirotvoraca - Tači, Tramp, Kim, Gvaido...kandidata koliko hoćeš!
aureus aureus 23:28 14.03.2019

Re: Skolstrejk för klimatet

nsarski
On March 14th she was nominated for the Nobel peace prize.


Koju će, ne sumnjam, dobiti. Ej, Švedžanka.

Prava je Pipi Duga Čarapa.
Koja je takođe Šveđanka, sa pletenicama.



Ms Thunberg
mesan mesan 23:36 14.03.2019

Re: Skolstrejk för klimatet

aureus
GRETA THUNBERG is an unlikely figurehead. In August the then 15-year-old high-school student walked out of her classroom and took up position outside Sweden’s parliament

Ma daj, to su masoni, CIA, jezuiti, hrvatijanci, klinton i soroš isprali mozak detetu da bi perfidno zatrli zdravu tradicionalnu porodicu i prodali svoje solarne panele.

No sad ozbiljno, jedan kaže da pokreti nastaju tek kad se pojavi prvi pratilac --- dakle kad se našao među prolaznicima, što su gledali zbunjeno ili snishodljivo, jedan da toj devojci priđe --- to kritično smanji barijeru i daje kredibilitet.
Mislim da je to priča ovde.
aureus aureus 23:40 14.03.2019

Re: Skolstrejk för klimatet

mesan
aureus
GRETA THUNBERG is an unlikely figurehead. In August the then 15-year-old high-school student walked out of her classroom and took up position outside Sweden’s parliament

Ma daj, to su masoni, CIA, jezuiti, hrvatijanci, klinton i soroš isprali mozak detetu da bi perfidno zatrli zdravu tradicionalnu porodicu i prodali svoje solarne panele.

Ali kako ti Šveđani dobro pričaju engleski od ranog uzrasta...
15 godina.

https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1041369960436703232

Inače, ima Aspergerov sindrom.

..............................................................
What's the point of going to school and learning facts, when the most import facts discovered by greatest scientists produced by the great school system clearly mean nothing
Bili Piton Bili Piton 00:40 15.03.2019

Re: Skolstrejk för klimatet

aureus

Ali kako ti Šveđani dobro pričaju engleski od ranog uzrasta...


Svi Skandinavci (sem Finaca, njima teže ide ali sustižu i oni).
aureus aureus 00:49 15.03.2019

Re: Skolstrejk för klimatet

Bili Piton
aureus

Ali kako ti Šveđani dobro pričaju engleski od ranog uzrasta...


Svi Skandinavci (sem Finaca, njima teže ide ali sustižu i oni).

Da. Ali najbolje Šveđani.
A Finci katkad imaju problem sa izgovorom jer u njihovom glasovnom sistemu nema komplikovanih suglasnika (recimo nemaju "dž", "š" itd), a po prirodi su stidljivi i nesigurni pa će radije da ćute umjesto da pričaju. A jezike je teško učiti ako nećeš da pričaš i ako se bojiš grešaka.
kamilo_emericki kamilo_emericki 09:18 15.03.2019

atentat

Zemljanine, cuvaj se.
zemljanin zemljanin 09:47 15.03.2019

Re: atentat

nije to nimalo blizu mene (~3000km) ali svejedno - tuzno i neverovatno ...

PS. a ako si mislio na Omu ... to je normalna pojava
kamilo_emericki kamilo_emericki 10:01 15.03.2019

Re: atentatemti

zemljanin
nije to nimalo blizu mene (~3000km) ali svejedno - tuzno i neverovatno ...

PS. a ako si mislio na Omu ... to je normalna pojava

Mislio sam na ovog skota sto pobi ljude.
Cuj, slusa pjesme o Karadzicu, 'bem ti, postali smo inspiracija ubicama i ludacima.
zemljanin zemljanin 10:22 15.03.2019

Re: atentatemti

kamilo_emericki

Mislio sam na ovog skota sto pobi ljude.
Cuj, slusa pjesme o Karadzicu, 'bem ti, postali smo inspiracija ubicama i ludacima.

video sam i taj (srpski) deo, odmah po objavi svratio komsija, jedan, drugi pa i ostali (nema veze sa pominjanjem Srba) ... ovi teroristi su napravili svoju verziju krivice pa ceprkali po istoriji ... pa pokupili neka imena i datume ... muzika je tu da pojaca dozivljaj ... ekstremisti, kojima je potreban bilo kakav razlog i povod ... sto rece jedan komsija - da sam pravio spisak gde bi moglo da se desi tako nesto, NZ ne bi cak ni stavio na tu listu ... ali
Neues aus der Nachbarschaft Neues aus der Nachbarschaft 14:51 15.03.2019

Re: atentatemti

Cuj, slusa pjesme o Karadzicu, 'bem ti, postali smo inspiracija ubicama i ludacima.


Mora da je slusao uz google translator s'obzirom da se ponosi irskim, engleskim i skotskim poreklom.
Srđan Fuchs Srđan Fuchs 16:29 15.03.2019

Re: atentatemti

Kažem ortacima iz diplomatskog kanca РСрпске da će još ispasti da je masovni ubica kripto-Srbin a nipošto ne beli britanski suprematista.
Srđan Fuchs Srđan Fuchs 16:42 15.03.2019

Re: atentatemti

kamilo_emericki

Mislio sam na ovog skota sto pobi ljude.
Cuj, slusa pjesme o Karadzicu, 'bem ti, postali smo inspiracija ubicama i ludacima.

Možda si ti postao, ja svakako nisam.
kamilo_emericki kamilo_emericki 18:34 15.03.2019

Re: atentatemti

Srđan Fuchs
kamilo_emericki

Mislio sam na ovog skota sto pobi ljude.
Cuj, slusa pjesme o Karadzicu, 'bem ti, postali smo inspiracija ubicama i ludacima.

Možda si ti postao, ja svakako nisam.

Sreo sam vrlo malo do nimalo ljudi koji imaju vremena i volje da razvrstavaju jednog po jednog covjeka iz nekog nacionalnog korpusa. Na primjer, ljudi kazu da Jevreji drze otvoreni logor u Gazi, Amerikanci razorili Irak i Libiju, Rusi gazili Madjare tenkovima i da ne nabrajam dalje. Malo ko pravi razliku po imenu i prezimaenu.
To kakav je tvoj ili moj odnos prema tome za vecinu nije bitan ili kazu onu idiotsku recenicu: On je Srbin, Hrvat, Bosnjak......ali je dobar covjek.

Arhiva

   

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